I think the Globe‘s Joan Venocchi is correct that Scott Brown’s chances of winning the special US Senate seat in January are poor:

Brown, a Republican state senator, can’t beat Martha Coakley, a Democratic attorney general, in the race for the seat of the late Edward M. Kennedy. The Bay State’s political DNA — Democrat to the core — will overcome any of Coakley’s personal weaknesses.

From a national perspective, however, this is kind of a no-win election for the Democrats. If Coakley wins overwhelmingly, no one will care, since the result will merely confirm that Massachusetts is solidly Democratic.

But if Brown gets 45 percent or more, expect the national media to cite the election as evidence that even Massachusetts thinks the Obama adminstration has gone too far to the left and overreached on health care reform.

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