It may seem like a first, but we’ve been here before.
Congressman Michael Capuano thinks The Woman is the one to beat in the US Senate race. The State House News Service is already reporting on who will be attorney general when The Woman heads to Washington. A Suffolk University poll this week shows The Woman with a commanding lead over potential rivals, including Boston Celtics owner Stephen Pagluica and Capuano. Pundits keep talking about what a wonderful advantage She has, what with being the only candidate who can distinguish herself by wearing skirts. To many, Massachusetts seems poised to elect its first female senator: Attorney General Martha Coakley.
Maybe we are, but this scenario feels familiar: a crowded Democratic primary field, a whole lot of dudes with varying levels of experience, one lady-lawyer who quickly racks up a lot of union support. Then, presto, the woman’s the one to beat. She’s the establishment candidate. She’s the business-as-usual candidate. She’s the one to vote against if you’re tired of politics. She’s…. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
HRC’s travails in the 2008 Democratic primary season put the lie to the notion that being the only woman is some sort of grand advantage. Never mind that we’d never had a woman president: Clinton quickly lost the mantle of “historic” to Barack Obama. She had to spend a lot of time not seeming “shrill.” Her professional experience got twisted into business-as-usual. Somehow, the historic became the ho-hum.
True, Clinton had a big piece of political baggage (named Bill) that Coakley does not. But she also had what is now Coakley’s big advantage: more name recognition than her opponents. The Suffolk poll shows about three times more people have heard of Coakley than of her competition.
That edge is likely to disappear, what with Pagluica buying up more TV time than the average reality show, and Capuano with $1.2 million in his federal campaign account. As opponents introduce themselves to voters, get ready for them to link Coakley to the Beacon Hill establishment while painting themselves as either the Bold Outsider or the heir to Ted Kennedy. Get ready for them to paint her as another corrupt Boston pol. And given that voters have a track record of preferring female candidates we can feel just a little bit sorry for (hence, the high success rate of widows in Congress) get ready for them to show Coakley looking fierce and prosecutorial and, well, Hillary-like all over the place.
We’ve seen the historic become the ho-hum. Coakley’s challenge is to keep her lead — without losing her claim on history.