City Councilors Mike Flaherty and Sam Yoon’s alliance against incumbent Boston Mayor Tom Menino has enlivened this November’s run-off election, but it will take a mighty strange geographical coalition to pull off an upset. The “Floon” ticket needs to combine Flaherty’s strength in conservative, mostly white neighborhoods (South Boston, Charlestown) with Yoon’s popularity in liberal neighborhoods dominated by voters who haven’t lived in the Hub their whole lives (Back Bay, Jamaica Plain).
It’s an odd coupling of neighborhoods that have traditionally been at odds in any truly competitive Boston race. In last year’s presidential primary, for example, Hillary Clinton easily won in Flaherty’s base and Barack Obama easily won in Yoon’s strongest areas. I can’t think of any counter-example where Southie and JP teamed up to defeat the Menino strongholds of Hyde Park and Roxbury. A Flaherty/Yoon victory would not only represent a sea change in how Boston is governed; it would completely redraw the Hub’s political map.
Here is how the city’s 22 wards broke down in the September primary; the numbers come from Matt O’Malley’s terrific blog on local politics. The first list shows where Menino was weakest, along with which challenger did best in each ward.
Most anti-Menino wards (by share of Menino vote in the primary)
1. Ward 6 (South Boston): 23% (Flaherty)
2. Ward 7 (Andrew Square): 32% (Flaherty)
3. Ward 5 (Back Bay/Beacon Hill): 39% (Yoon)
4. Ward 2 (Charlestown): 39% (Flaherty)
5. Ward 19 (Jamaica Plain/Roslindale): 40% (Yoon)
6. Ward 16 (Dorchester: Neponset): 44% (Flaherty)
7. Ward 22 (Brighton): 44% (Flaherty)
8. Ward 4 (Fenway): 44% (Yoon)
9. Ward 11 (Forest Hills): 46% (Yoon)
10. Ward 3 (Downtown): 49% (Yoon)
11. Ward 20 (West Roxbury): 49% (Flaherty)
Most pro-Menino wards (by share of Menino vote in the primary)
1. Ward 14 (Dorchester: Blue Hill Ave.): 73%
2. Ward 18 (Hyde Park): 68%
3. Ward 15 (Dorchester: Meeting House Hill): 65%
4. Ward 12 (Roxbury): 65%
5. Ward 8 (Roxbury/South Bay): 62%
6. Ward 17 (Dorchester: Codman Square): 60%
7. Ward 1 (East Boston): 57%
8. Ward 9 (Roxbury/South End): 57%
9. Ward 10 (Mission Hill): 54%
10. Ward 13 (Dorchester: Savin Hill): 53%
11. Ward 21 (Allston): 52%