Last year, I noted that Rudy Giuliani was the only Republican presidential candidate with significant support in almost every state for which polls were available, giving him a substantial advantage in the race for the nomination. I’m not stubborn enough to say that Giuliani is still the frontrunner, but I do think that the candidate with the fewest “dead zones” (that is, states in which he is likely to get wiped out in the hunt for delegates) will win the nomination.

So I’ll be watching the polls out of the Super Tuesday states of New Jersey and New York. Giuliani is dropping fast in both states, but Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are still below 15 percent, according to the most recent polls. (See New Jersey here and New York here, courtesy of Dave Leip’s Atlas of US Presidential Elections.) Only John McCain has been able to rise into the 20s as a result of Giuliani’s fall. McCain’s inability to win a majority of registered Republicans in Michigan and New Hampshire is a sign that he has a tough road ahead, but if Romney and Huckabee are completely shut out in New Jersey and New York, I don’t see how either can win the nomination (because I think McCain could pick up some delegates practically everywhere). The question after Michigan: Can Romney finally start to peel away Giuliani supporters in the Northeast?