As we wait for the New Hampshire results, we can ponder the map from the last tight Democratic primary here, when Al Gore defeated Bill Bradley by about 6,000 votes (76,897 to 70,502). Gore, like Hillary Clinton now, was the quasi-incumbent fighting off a challenge from the reformist left. Most of his margin came from three cities in the south: Manchester, Nashua, and Rochester. History suggests that Clinton will need to come out of each city with a comfortable margin in order to prevail statewide.

Bradley, by contrast, nearly pulled off an upset by winning most of the small towns to the north and west of Manchester, plus some college towns and seacoast communities. His biggest margins were in Hanover, Durham, and Exeter, but none gave him more than a 713-vote edge. If Barack Obama wins any of these by four digits, he may be on his way to an Iowa-size victory.

The mid-sized cities of Concord and Portsmouth, by the way, mirrored the state pretty closely that year, giving narrow margins to Gore. Will they be bellwethers again in 2008?