New polls in California and Florida give Rudy Giuliani 25 to 30 percent of the Republican presidential primary vote, with no other candidate cracking 15 percent in either state. Time is running out for anti-Giuiliani forces to unite around an alternative. As I’ve argued before, Giuliani is the only candidate who now stands to win several big-state primaries with minimal effort, meaning that he can force a campaign-spending arms race in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina and not worry about the Day After.

Of course, if Romney, Thompson, McCain, or Huckabee sweeps the early contests, that candidate will suddenly shoot up in the polls in Florida and Texas. But I’m still dubious that a candidate identified with the religious right is going to win the GOP primaries in the big blue states of California, New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois.