State House News Service’s Jim O’Sullivan has a succinct forecast of gubernatorial politics over the next 18 months (subscription required for full story):

Gov. Deval Patrick’s sharp words last week against the Legislature, and the very public venues he chose in which to voice them, convinced many legislators that the governor’s re-election strategy increasingly revolves around casting them in familiar roles: tax-and-spend bogeymen responsible for a corrupt and bloated state government. With both Patrick and all 200 members of the Legislature up for re-election in November 2010, many legislators say that, coupled with the unpleasant policy choices forced by a wretched economy, they are resigned to 18 months of criticism from a Corner Office whose own poll numbers are problematic.

“Is he going to run against us? Yeah, probably,” said Rep. Theodore Speliotis (D-Danvers), House chair of the Consumer Protection Committee. “Do I take it personal? No. I think he’s really boxed in and he’s got no choice.”

O’Sullivan is probably correct, but his assessment makes the 2010 campaign seem like a dreary prospect — and a big change from the upbeat “Together We Can” vibe of 2006.

Still, Patrick is unlikely to face any Democratic legislators as opponents; in contrast to many states, Massachusetts rarely rewards Senate and House leaders with nominations for statewide office. The question is whether Patrick can plausibly run a “damn the Legislature” campaign against someone like Charles Baker, Christy Mihos, or even Tim Cahill, none of whom have ever served in that body.