POLL NUMBERS for key Democratic leaders are sagging between apathy and anonymity, according to a new poll of Massachusetts voters by the MassINC Polling Group.
Favorability and reelection numbers are tepid at best. Just 43 percent of registered voters hold favorable views of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (38 percent unfavorable). For newly elected Gov. Maura Healey, the figure is just 46 percent (22 percent unfavorable). Just 26 percent hold either a positive or negative view of House Minority Whip Katherine Clark. And for President Biden, despite shellacking Donald Trump by 34 points in 2020, just 23 percent of the state’s voters want to see him run again. (topline, crosstabs links)
This is not normal for Massachusetts. Not that long ago, Democratic leaders could count on pretty solid poll numbers here. Polls in the 2011-2013 timeframe often found Barack Obama, Deval Patrick, John Kerry, and Elizabeth Warren with consistently strong poll favorables, often clearing 6 percent.
Despite these numbers, Democrats are at the height of their power in the state. Their grip on important elected offices is complete. They hold every statewide and congressional office and veto-proof supermajorities in both legislative chambers. And for some leaders, these poll numbers come with important caveats.
Healey is newer to many voters and may yet climb in popularity. A lightly contested election in 2022 meant many voters didn’t tune in closely and haven’t developed views of her in either direction. As her term unfolds, she will have many opportunities to become better known to those who didn’t follow along as she sailed into office.
As for Warren, despite low favorable numbers and just 44 percent for voters saying she should run again, she will be the odds-on favorite for reelection if she follows through on her recent sort-of-announcement. Elizabeth Warren won a thumping reelection in 2018, despite weak reelect polling early in that campaign. In January 2017, just 44 percent said they wanted her to run for reelection.
Key to this dynamic is the fact that the Democratic primary has become the entire affair in many recent contests and Democratic voters are still with her. Among Democrats, 64 percent hold a positive view of her, and 65 percent think she should run again. Republican voters’ views of statewide candidates don’t matter until the party can prove itself capable of fielding palatable and electable alternatives.
Affection does not mean reelection, as President Biden’s very weak reelection numbers show. While Warren can count on support from Democrats, Biden is in a different place as he looks ahead to 2024. Just 35 percent of self-identified Democrats say he should run again, even though 69 percent hold a favorable view of him.
Rounding out the slate of leaders in this poll, Clark, now the House Minority Whip and one of the most influential Democrats in the country, is all but unknown in her home state. Just 15 percent of Massachusetts voters express a favorable view of Clark, with 11 percent unfavorable.
None of this suggests the MassGOP is on the verge of a resurgence. Torn into warring factions, some of which have wandered to the far edges of the political spectrum, the party will need to pull itself together and find palatable candidates before posing a broad threat to Democratic power in the state.
This poll shows that while Democrats may hold every office, their hold on voters’ attention and affection has weakened. There are other leaders who may grab the imagination of Democratic voters as time goes on. But for now, voters are less enthusiastic in their support of high-profile party leaders than was often true in years past.