MASSACHUSETTS HAS a staggering to-do list in order to meet its 2050 commitment to hit net zero greenhouse emission. All across the state, homes and schools need weatherizing, buildings need to pivot over to green appliances and clean heat systems like heat pumps, infrastructure changes need to encourage drivers to choose electric vehicles and take public transit. The power sources themselves need to be greener, and natural environments like forests need bulking up to capture and store carbon.
And that’s just the mid-century timeline. Steps laid out in the state’s most recent Clean Energy and Climate Plan anticipate the sharpest emission reductions must happen in the five-year span between 2025 and 2030 – a “rapid decarbonization” window now just a stone’s throw away.
The state’s new “climate report card,” released this month, “shows us exactly what we need to do and it’s a call to action,” said climate chief Melissa Hoffer.
Without the latest statewide greenhouse gas emissions — the most recent complete data is from 2020 – the report focuses on other variables like electric vehicle capacity and power grid transformation. It offers a bracing assessment of the path ahead.
“[S]ignificant action must happen now to adapt to climate change,” the Healey administration said in announcing the report card. “Across sectors, external macroeconomic challenges brought on by inflation, supply chain issues, and workforce shortages are the largest roadblock to meeting targets.”
The good news is that the state is on track for the 2025 push in transportation, building, power, and natural and working land sectors, according to the Healey administration.
“Overall, the Commonwealth appears generally well-positioned to hit 2025 benchmarks,” Kate Dineen, president of the infrastructure-focused business group A Better City, said in a statement after the report release, “but bold interventions will be needed to meet 2030 decarbonization targets, as well as broader resilience objectives.”
In every sector, there’s a dramatic haul to come. At the start of December, there were 6,436 public electric vehicle charging station ports, which needs to hit 15,000 by 2025 and 75,000 by 2030. As far as electric cars on the road, the 70,689 already in motion last year puts the state ahead of schedule, but the climate plan calls for 200,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2025 and 900,000 by 2030.
Electric vehicle rebates almost tripled over the last year or so, officials said, an essential tool to encourage people to shift over to EVs, which have higher up-front costs than gas-powered cars. But the pain of parking in Massachusetts isn’t just a snow-day headache – a third of state residents do not have off-street parking, which would make it hard to charge an electric vehicle at home, meaning the charging stations don’t just have to be numerous but also strategically placed around the state.
The home itself is a prime decarbonization target. Buildings account for 35 percent of statewide emissions, according to the report. Swapping to heat pumps – which heat and cool buildings through inside and outside temperature exchange – is a prime home energy efficiency target and getting more popular. The report card states that 2023 is on pace to see heat pump installations increase 30-fold, with the majority of new commercial construction using heat pumps.
But here, as in other sectors, “sharp increases are needed” to meet targets. A little under 30,000 houses have installed heat pumps since 2020, and the state climate plan estimates that heat pumps will be installed in at least 500,000 homes by 2030. The state has no target for weatherizing homes to make them more energy efficient, but there were roughly 40,400 home weatherization projects in 2022.
Massachusetts’ diverse residential housing stock may be a source of colonial charm, but it makes one-size-fits all fixes difficult for half of the buildings in the state, the report notes. Incentive-based programs tend to prioritize homeowners and building owners rather than renters, which the state acknowledged can leave renters out in the cold, and they can often be tricky to navigate. Plus, even if homes swap over to electrical power, that can strain the grid without better electrical efficiency and control measures, according to the report.
The trickiest morass of the bunch is one of the most essential – producing green energy. While about half of the state’s electric load is cleanly generated today, and Gov. Maura Healey has launched a large wind procurement through a multi-state partnership, permitting and siting wind projects and their infrastructure has caused plenty of headaches.
“Macroeconomic forces, such as high inflation, rising interest rates, and ongoing supply-chain delays, are increasing project costs, causing several offshore wind projects on the east coast to terminate existing power purchase agreements,” the report says.
Add in uncertainty about cost allocation, uncertain energy market revenues, lengthy permitting battles, and the question of grid capacity. The critical next half decade of greening the Bay State may stay on track, but it looks like a roller coaster.