THE LONG-AWAITED electrification of the New England economy is starting to happen.

From 1995 to 2005, the demand for electricity produced by the region’s power grid steadily increased, growing nearly 21 percent as the New England economy expanded and homeowners and businesses installed air conditioning units at a rapid clip.

From 2005 until 2023, however, demand for power from the grid slid 16 percent. Modest growth in electricity consumption was more than offset by growth in energy efficiency savings and solar installations, both of which reduced demand for power from the grid.

Now, according to a new study by grid operator ISO New England, the pendulum is swinging in the opposite direction. Demand for power from the grid is expected to grow by more than 17 percent over the next 10 years, as electrification of vehicles and home heating drives up consumption, more than offsetting growth in energy efficiency and solar installations.

The study focuses on the concept of net energy use, which is basically a forecast of how much power the grid will need to produce to satisfy demand. The forecast is complicated because so many variables are involved. Will the economy grow or contract? How fast will energy efficiency programs grow, reducing how much electricity needs to be produced? How many solar panels will be installed on homes, which also reduces the need for electricity from the grid? And how much electricity will be needed to power vehicles and heating systems?

The study forecasts that net energy use will grow nearly 1.8 percent a year by 2033, yielding a 17.5 increase over the 10-year period. Energy efficiency is expected to grow by nearly 6 percent. Solar energy for internal home or business use is expected to increase by 83 percent. And electricity needed to power vehicles and heating systems is expected to grow a whopping 96 percent by 2033.

There are a lot of moving parts to the analysis, but the bottom line is that increasing amounts of electricity will need to be drawn from the power grid over the next decade. Most of the growth will be backloaded toward the end of the decade. From 2024 to 2025, the growth is 106 gigawatt hours. From 2031 to 2032, the growth is 4,143 gigawatt hours.

The big question is where that electricity will come from.

Most policymakers across the region hope we can swap out cars and home heating systems that run on fossil fuels and replace them with vehicles and heating systems that run on electricity – hopefully using electricity that is carbon free. That last point is crucial because otherwise the big switcheroo will be of very little value from a climate perspective.

That’s why there is so much focus in the region on building out offshore wind, hydro-electricity, and other forms of carbon-free power – and why the long delays experienced so far in getting those sources of electricity operational is so concerning. The clock, as they say, is ticking.