THE POWER GRID OPERATOR IN NEW ENGLAND said it expects to have sufficient supplies of electricity this winter despite concerns about the inadequate capacity of natural gas pipelines coming into the region.

Officials at ISO-New England said they have secured obligations for 31,058 megawatts of power this winter, well in excess of what they are forecasting will be needed. The grid operator is forecasting peak demand of 21,088 megawatts at normal winter temperatures and 21,737 megawatts at extreme temperatures of 2 degrees Fahrenheit or less. The all-time winter peak demand in New England was 22,818 megawatts on Jan. 15, 2004; last year’s peak of 20,583 megawatts came on Jan. 8, 2015.

The demand-and-supply forecast is another key data point in a fierce Beacon Hill debate about whether the region needs additional natural gas pipeline capacity. ISO-New England said natural gas generated 44 percent of the region’s electricity in 2014. At times during the winter months, power plants that run on gas have difficulty obtaining the fuel because nearly all the gas flowing into the region is diverted for residential and commercial heating.

Gov. Charlie Baker wants the state’s electric customers to finance additional natural gas pipeline capacity to ease winter shortages at power-generating plans and to expand the use of gas for heating. Attorney General Maura Healey, relying on a study she recently released, says the new pipelines aren’t needed because the region has sufficient power.

A Baker spokesman  noted ISO-New England is still cautioning that “constraints on the region’s natural gas pipelines could pose a challenge to reliable operations,” although the grid operator said it was addressing that challenge with a winter reliability program. Healey’s office declined comment.

Vamsi Chadalavada, the chief operating officer of the power grid operator, said 4,220 megawatts of natural gas-fired generating capacity are at risk of shutting down on any given day this winter because of an inability to obtain fuel during low-temperature periods. Even without those 4,220 megawatts, the region should still have a reserve cushion of about 5,100 megawatts of generating capacity, according to ISO-New England estimates.

“The cushion is about covering all of the contingencies that could occur,” said ISO-New England spokeswoman Marcia Blomberg, who noted that power plants can often shut down unexpectedly because of maintenance issues.

During the winter of 2013-2014, many natural gas power plants shut down because they couldn’t gain access to fuel. Some plants that run on oil were unable to fill the breach because they had inadequate supplies of oil on hand. As a result, the wholesale price of electricity skyrocketed and the following winter, when retail prices were set based on what happened the previous winter, electric ratepayers saw their bills jump as much as 37 percent.

ISO-New England has tried to ease the crunch with a winter reliability program that offers financial incentives to power generators to stock up on liquefied natural gas (LNG) and oil before winter begins.  The grid operator is also developing a longer-range program that will financially reward and punish power plants that fail to meet their commitments to supply electricity; the assumption is that the carrot-and-stick approach will prompt power generators to develop contingency plans for times when natural gas is in short supply, possibly by building plants that can run on gas or oil.