Americans love polls. Except when they don’t say what they want them to say.
Donald Trump could not tout his poll numbers enough when he was winning the surveys and the votes in the primaries and then early on in the election cycle when they showed him with a lead over Hillary Clinton. Now, as surveys around the country show his support waning, he dismisses many scientific polls as being rigged and suggests they often miss the silent Trump wave.
“I’m not sure the polls have changed,” says data expert John Johnson, CEO of Edgeworth Economics in Washington, DC. “The results have. The time you really should trust the polls is the closer you get to the election.”
Trump and his surrogates have taken to brandishing opt-in surveys published by a number of websites, most of which showed him destroying Clinton in the debates, counter to the results from scientific polls that had more voters thinking the Democratic nominee was the winner in all three debates.
Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling Group, says those self-selecting surveys are merely clickbait, for entertainment purposes only, and should not even be labeled polls. He says there often are no controls over who can respond or how many times they can answer the questions, unlike scientific surveys that have representative groups and random selection with a defined margin of error.
“The difference is good poll vs. not good poll,” says Koczela, who has been tracking the presidential race in Massachusetts and New Hampshire as well as other races and ballot questions for WBUR. “They’re something that shouldn’t really be called a poll…They should be called PINOs – Polls in Name Only or something else entirely.”
To make sense of all the numbers, Johnson and Koczela joined The Codcast to talk about the shifting dynamics and help sort out what’s real and what’s not in the numbers behind this year’s elections.
JACK SULLIVAN
BEACON HILL
Legislative leaders urged Gov. Charlie Baker to delay mid-year budget cuts, and Baker has responded by pursuing what are being called alternative measures. (State House News)
US prosecutors say former House speaker Sal DiMasi’s health appears to be worsening in prison. (Boston Globe)
MUNICIPAL MATTERS
It’s not even Halloween and already there’s snow in western Massachusetts. (Berkshire Eagle)
The unemployment rate in Holyoke falls to its lowest level in 15 years. “Holyoke is rising,” says Mayor Alex Morse. The Holyoke rate in September was 5.3 percent, 2 points above the statewide rate. (Masslive)
Talk of a $100 million remake of City Hall and its surrounding plaza is raising concerns about Mayor Marty Walsh’s spending priorities. (Boston Herald)
A Harvard study rated the noise levels in Boston neighborhoods and found Dorchester to be the loudest from everyday sounds. (Dorchester Reporter)
Easton officials have failed to file zoning and bylaw changes with the state since 2008 as required by law, meaning many decisions including where medical marijuana facilities can be sited may be unenforceable. (The Enterprise)
Lowell expects to save nearly $6 million by eliminating a sick-leave buyback provision for city employees. (Lowell Sun)
Greenfield gets a $7.5 million state grant to build a parking garage downtown. (Masslive)
It looks like attempts to find a negotiated resolution to the standoff over an Islamic cemetery in Dudley aren’t working, so the case is probably headed for court. (Telegram & Gazette)
Framingham Town Meeting members affirmed their vote to seek a home rule petition to reduce the size of the body by 25 percent, from 216 to 162, to foster competition and become more active. (MetroWest Daily News)
WASHINGTON/NATIONAL/INTERNATIONAL
A lawyer accuses Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas of grabbing her butt in 1999. The judge calls the claim “preposterous.” (New York Times)
The defendants who forcibly occupied the Oregon wildlife refuge are found not guilty even though the facts suggested they were guilty. (NPR)
ELECTIONS
Bernie Sanders says the hard work really starts once Hillary Clinton is elected. (Boston Globe) Politico says Vice President Joe Biden is at the top of Clinton’s list for secretary of state.
The New York Times endorses New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan in the US Senate race against Sen. Kelly Ayotte. The Lowell Sun endorses Ayotte.
The Democratic National Committee has filed a formal legal complaint accusing the Republican National Committee of working with Donald Trump in suppressing minority turnout through voter intimidation. (U.S. News & World Report)
A plane carrying GOP vice presidential nominee Mike Pence skidded off a runway at New York’s LaGuardia Airport. (New York Times)
Libertarian presidential candidate Gary Johnson tried to change the subject to his support for legalizing marijuana and blew up at a reporter pressing him on his tax plan. (Business Insider)
The marijuana legalization ballot question appears to be on a winning track, while the charter school expansion question is neck and neck, according to a new Suffolk University poll. (Boston Globe) Language inside the ballot question legalizing marijuana says a parent’s use of pot should not be used as the primary basis for taking away custody of his or her children. (Boston Globe) Shirley Leung joins the “just say no crowd”. (Boston Globe) Boston Public Radio’s Margery Eagan says vote yes despite the anti-pot hysteria.
Former US Education Secretary Arne Duncan calls charter schools part of the Massachusetts solution. (CommonWealth) The Globe backs Q2.
The number of registered voters is up in central Massachusetts — 1 percent in Worcester and 10 percent in Fitchburg. (Telegram & Gazette)
Write-in votes are a wasted vote of conscience, particularly in Massachusetts. (CommonWealth)
EDUCATION
The managers of the Harvard University endowment essentially set their own benchmark goals, which helps explain why they racked up huge commissions while the fund itself lagged. (Bloomberg)
Testing showed elevated levels of lead above acceptable limits in drinking water at two Framingham elementary schools and officials plan to test the water at the district’s remaining schools. (MetroWest Daily News)
HEALTH/HEALTH CARE
Vermont prepares to launch an all-payer accountable care organization in January. (Modern Healthcare)
TRANSPORTATION
The smoke out on the Orange Line earlier this week has prompted some Democrats to push for a tax hike to fund repairs on the MBTA. (WGBH) Boston Mayor Marty Walsh is leading the charge. (Boston Globe)
The MBTA pension fund is struggling. (Boston Herald)
All-electronic tolling on the Turnpike has finally arrived. It could be a bumpy ride at first. (Boston Globe)
An Oak Bluffs rental dealer has offered to take 40 of his mopeds off Martha’s Vineyard roads after years of pressure by residents to reduce the number of the motorized bikes because of mounting accidents. (Cape Cod Times)
ENERGY/ENVIRONMENT
For the first time since August, one part of the state — Nantucket — has been removed from the list of drought-affected areas because of the recent rains, though the rest of the state remains under severe or moderate drought conditions or abnormally dry. (State House News Service)
CRIMINAL JUSTICE/COURTS
Harvard Law professor and constitutional scholar Laurence Tribe talks about the Supreme Court post-election and says an eight-member court “cannot be allowed to become the new norm.” (Greater Boston)
The Boston Globe’s editorial, “Vote ‘yes’ on Question 2,” is loaded with misinformation and strategic omissions to make its case for more charter schools. It starts with the second paragraph asserting there are 32,000 students on charter schools waitlists. According to the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education there are 23,601 “Unique (Unduplicated) Number of Students who Applied for Admittance for the 2016-2017 School Year and were Waitlisted” and even that overstates the waitlist. But more important when it comes to waitlists there are more students on waitlists for public schools in Boston and Lowell than for charter schools in those cities. Also, in Massachusetts there are about 15,000 children on a waitlist for income-eligible subsidized early education. Aren’t those wait lists worthy of discussion? But all the big, dark, out of state money focuses on the overstated charter schools waitlist…just like The Boston Globe’s editors. VOTE NO on Question 2
The Boston Globe’s editorial goes on: “Meanwhile, in the great majority of the Commonwealth’s towns — places with thriving traditional school districts — the referendum would have no impact, because parents there are mostly happy with their schools.” Guess what? More than 200 public school districts across the state will lose more than $400 million to charter schools this year. Even Lexington and Newton are losing funding to charter schools…Lexington and Newton! The school committees in Lexington and Newton voted to oppose lifting the charter school cap…voted against Question 2. VOTE NO on Question 2.
The Boston Globe’s editorial continues: “Charter schools in Massachusetts date to 1993, the same year that the state’s highest court found that public education was failing generations of students in low-income communities.” Why was public education in Massachusetts failing generations of students? The Globe’s editors don’t say because then it would completely undermine its case for more charter schools. Here’s the real story behind The Globe’s reference to “1993:” In 1978 a court case was brought on behalf of students in certain property-poor communities who alleged that the school finance system violated the education clause of the Massachusetts Constitution. The case took FIFTEEN YEARS to work its way through the court system…with one entire generation of Massachusetts school children attending underfunded public schools…the court finally AGREED in 1993 and the state legislature finally acted…that’s how the 1993 Education Reform Act came about setting education standards, authorizing 25 charter schools and establishing the Foundation Budget was established…the state’s mechanism distributing aid to local public school districts. Then it took seven years for the state to double its financial commitment to local public school districts from 1993 to 2000. So TWENTY-TWO YEARS after the court case was first filed…Massachusetts met its financial obligation to public education first identified in a 1978 court case and addressed in law in 1993. In 2010 the Massachusetts Business Alliance for Education released a report, “School Funding Reality: A Bargain Not Kept How is the Foundation Budget Working?” finding “Over the 17 years since the Education Reform Act passed, there has been virtually no equalization in spending or state aid between rich districts and poor.” Last year the “Foundation Budget Review Commission Final Report” was released finding a massive shortfall in state aid to public education exceeding $1 billion in areas including English language learners, low income and special education. The conversation should be let’s adequately fund public education now…right now. The charter school debate distracts from that conversation. VOTE NO on Question 2
The Boston Globe’s editorial states: “Studies have shown that charters in Massachusetts are producing verifiably better academic results than district schools. For instance, a study by Stanford University’s Center for Research on Education Outcomes in Boston found that kids in 83 percent of charters in the city significantly outperform their traditional public school peers in reading and math.” The CREDO study used “a quasi-experimental study design” that relies on comparing real charter school students to “virtual” or not real public school students. And guess what the study found? The real charter school students showed more learning gains than the not real public school students. Real charter school students vs. make believe public school students. That’s what passes as a charter school “study.” VOTE NO on Question 2.
CommonWealth readers should check out three videos on charter schools: “Charter Schools: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver;” the 60 Minutes segment on the “secretive Turkish Islamic sect,” and the Question 2 debate “More Charter Schools? The Massachusetts Vote and the National Debate.” VOTE NO on Question 2.
It will be interesting to see if CommonWealth’s Daily Download references The Berkshire Eagle’s editorial against Question 2, “Our Opinion: New charters must wait for better funding.” The editorial states “It is estimated that charters will cost traditional schools $450 million in funding in 2017, with Pittsfield losing about $2 million. Public schools are already underfunded by as much as $1 billion according to a recent statewide study, and Berkshire schools cannot afford this kind of hit…Costing those schools more funds by adding charter schools will make it impossible for the schools to meet whatever standard the governor sets for them. Inadequate funding and a flawed funding mechanism must be addressed before the state can add more charter schools. The Eagle advocates a “No” vote on Question 2..” VOTE NO on Question 2.
“The first connection between a firm handling Massachusetts pension funds and advocacy for Question 2 came in September 2015, when investor Charles Ledley of Highfields (fictionalized as Charlie Geller in the movie “The Big Short”) wrote a check for $40,000 to help kick off Public Charter Schools of Massachusetts, a group that’s since been rolled into Great Schools Massachusetts. The same day, Joanna Jacobson — the wife of Highfields’ co-founder Jonathan Jacobson — also gave $40,000 to the group. Over the next two months, $80,000 came in from Joshua Bekenstein and Paul Edgerly of Bain Capital. Martin Mannion, with Summit Partners, kicked in another $30,000. Highfields, Bain and Summit are all listed as financial managers for MassPRIM. As the campaign heated up over the following year, more financial firms doing business with MassPRIM funneled money to Great Schools Massachusetts, Public Charter Schools for Massachusetts, and an expanding network of other groups formed to push Question 2.” Source: International Business Times “Wall Street Firms Make Money From Teachers’ Pensions — And Fund Charter Schools Fight.” VOTE NO on Question 2.
International Business Times “Wall Street Firms Make Money From Teachers’ Pensions — And Fund Charter Schools Fight” that states: “firms whose executives are linked to the push for more charter schools have seen an increase in state business amid the Baker-backed ballot fight.” A contribution for Question 2 results in that donor making more money from the state? The public needs to know more about this. How about CommonWealth assign a reporter to investigate? VOTE NO on Question 2.
Now its official. Charter schools drain funds from public schools. Today’s Boston Globe article, “Charter school vote may hurt ratings, credit agency says,” reports “The credit-rating agency Moody’s Investors Service is warning Boston and three other Massachusetts cities that passage of a ballot measure to expand charter schools could weaken the municipalities’ financial standing and ultimately threaten their bond ratings.” VOTE NO on Question 2.