Independence Day weekend saw Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin skip out on her job, state Sen. Stanley Rosenberg come out of the closet, and state Treasurer Tim Cahill drop out of the Democratic Party. Cahill is assumed to be running for governor as an independent next year, hoping to capitalize on the current unpopularity of Gov. Deval Patrick, the state Legislature, and the tax increases they recently enacted.

Cahill is clearly running as a fiscal conservative, not only opposing the tax hikes but also saying in a Boston Globe interview that the state’s three-year-old mandate for universal health care coverage isn’t “doable.” The next question is, what kind of fiscal conservative will he be?

Will he be an anti-Beacon Hill populist, ready to put a pox on all houses and political parties? Can he duplicate Ross Perot’s success with dramatic charts, folksy sayings, and careful avoidance of social issues like abortion? Will he be a bit more dramatic and go for an Arnold Schwarzenegger approach, promising not to shuffle things around on Beacon Hill but instead “blow up boxes“?

Or will Cahill be more like former House Speaker Tom Finneran, proclaiming himself a fiscally responsible adult who can work with the Legislature and act as a check against the “loony left” in the Democratic Party, now associated with Gov. Patrick? Will he embrace his eight-year experience as a statewide official and argue that he can be a more effective governor than fellow anti-tax candidate Christy Mihos — a “reformer with results,” as one presidential candidate once put it?

I suspect that much depends on what possible Republican candidate Charles Baker decides to do. If he runs, the former official in the Weld and Cellucci administrations has to decide whether to run as another outsider (as Mitt Romney and Deval Patrick did) or as someone who knows how things work on Beacon Hill. Cahill seems to be hoping to intimidate Baker from running at all, but if he leans too far in one direction — angry outsider or experienced administrator — he might give Baker an opening to take the other role.