It’s almost scary how accurate the polls were in the US Senate race between Democrat Ed Markey and Republican Gabriel Gomez. Markey defeated Gomez by 10 points, and polls on average pegged his margin of victory at 10 points.
On his Mass. Numbers blog, Brent Benson reported that a time-weighted average of the 17 independent polls in the race put the Markey victory margin at 10.1 points. A normalized polling average, which splits the undecideds in each poll equally between Markey and Gomez, gave Markey the edge by exactly 10 points, 55.5 to 45.5.The actual vote turned out to be 54.8 to 44.8.
The Suffolk University poll on June 22 was dead-on with its 10-point margin of victory. Two other polls toward the end of the race were outliers. The Boston Herald/UMass Lowell poll on June 19 and a New England College poll two days later had Markey up 20 points.
Red-and-blue-colored electoral maps of the state showed Markey winning in Greater Boston, western Massachusetts, and the Outer Cape and Islands. A town-by-town breakdown showed him winning Boston by a better than 3-1 margin. He also won nine of the original 11 Gateway Cities, losing only Haverhill and Fitchburg.
Even though Markey received some criticism for snubbing debate invites in New Bedford and several other Gateway Cities, he won handily in those areas. He won in New Bedford by a 2-1 margin and also racked up solid margins in Springfield, Worcester, Lawrence, Pittsfield, and Fall River.
Voter turnout overall was 27 percent statewide, below even the pessimistic projections of state officials, the Globe reported. The Globe said 1.16 million voters turned out compared to the 2.3 million in the 2010 special election.
–BRUCE MOHL
BEACON HILL
House and Senate negotiators reach agreement on a bill to raise $500 million to shore up the state’s aging and debt-ridden transportation system, WBUR reports.
In a CommonWealth Voices piece, Paul Kelley of Somerville urges Rep. Harold Naughton to include a requirement that gun owners purchase insurance in any gun control bill that emerges from his committee.
Three bills in the Legislature are aimed at eliminating the sales tax on boats built in Massachusetts, measures that supporters say could spur the rebirth of boatbuilding and create jobs in the state.
MUNICIPAL MATTERS
Hingham officials have made a bid to buy the private water company that serves their town as well as Hull and parts of Cohasset, though they say the offer was “significantly less” than the $184 million price tag at which the company valued the system.
The Globe’s Sean Murphy reports that top mayoral aide Michael Kineavy intervened to smooth the way for a friend’s South Boston condo project that was facing hurdles at the Boston Redevelopment Authority and opposition from some abutters. The Herald writeup is here.
The owners of Somerset Station, slated to be sold at a foreclosure auction in July, have not paid property taxes on the shuttered coal-burning power plant in over a year and the bill is now a quarter-million dollars, officials say.
Property tax overrides in North Attleboro and Ashburnham fail, while Shirley voters reject three proposed local option taxes.
NATIONAL POLITICS/WASHINGTON
The US Supreme Court yesterday struck down a central pillar of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, freeing nine states, mostly in the South, from a requirement to seek prior federal approval of changes in voting procedures. The Court expects Congress to update the Act. New York Times op-ed contributor Richard Hasen notes that the Court trimmed voting rights and affirmative action in the same week. The Atlantic looks at next steps for voting rights protections.
Today, the court handed two big victories to gay marriage supporters, striking down the 1996 Defense of Marriage Act that denied federal benefits to legally married same-sex couples and declining to take up an appeal of a California ruling that paved the way for same-sex marriage there.
President Obama delivers a long-awaited speech on climate change and energy policy, calling for more support for wind and solar power, vowing to regular carbon emissions, and saying the controversial Keystone pipeline should not be built if it adds to greenhouse gas emissions. The president’s climate change plan builds on state leadership, Governing reports.
The Texas abortion bill passes but the vote is declared invalid on technical grounds in a chaotic Senate chamber, the New York Times reports. The Daily Beast profiles the Texas senator who led the filibuster against the sweeping abortion bill. A brief Washington Post profile of the woman who wore pink sneakers during her marathon talk is here.
The IRS is offering fast-track approval for social-welfare groups caught up in the political maelstrom, promising tax-exempt status within two weeks if the groups pledge to limit their partisan activities to less than 40 percent of their time and funds.
ELECTIONS
Ed Markey cruised to victory by a comfortable 10-point margin in the special election for US Senate, a race that had a ho-hum flavor — and record low voter turnout in response. NECN has video of Markey and also of Gomez. The Herald notes that Markey now has to do what Scott Brown failed to pull off — keep running straight through the next election, which is coming up quickly. A Herald editorial argues that Gomez deserved better treatment than he received, both from Markey and the DC Democratic machine, and from the fractured GOP base. The Sun Chronicle ponders Gomez’s political future.
Three candidates for mayor in Boston — John Connolly, Marty Walsh, and Charles Yancey — met yesterday in a “mini-forum” to discuss development and the economy. CommonWealth was a cosponsor of the forum, along with the Chiofaro Co., A Better City, and the Boston Municipal Research Bureau.
BUSINESS/ECONOMY
Charles Chieppo, writing for Governing, explores why Rhode Island and Massachusetts chased private jobs with public money.
A Fall River landlord whose properties were condemned, displacing more than 40 low-income tenants, has been benefitting from state subsidies from a program designed to prevent homelessness.
Former New Bedford Mayor Scott Lang has formed a watchdog group to monitor and challenge the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which he says is out of control when it comes to fishing regulations.
Cambridge loses a lawsuit to keep Uber off its roads, the Globe reports.
Home values in urban areas are rising more quickly than in the surrounding suburbs.
CommonWealth’s Paul McMorrow links restaurants and liquor licenses to local economic development efforts in a Globe op-ed column.
EDUCATION
A Stanford study says charter schools on average outperform public schools in English and are on par in math, Bloomberg Business Week reports.
A report from a national consumer group says a number of debt relief companies have cropped up offering to help confused borrowers with their student loan debt and charging as much as $1,600 for services that the government offers for free.
HEALTH CARE
State health officials are investigating what caused students at Essex Agricultural and Technical School in Danvers to experience vocal tics and hiccups, the Salem News reports.
RELIGION
Cardinal Sean O’Malley has banned a Catholic church in Dedham from hosting a speech by an Austrian priest who advocates ordination of women and for making celibacy optional for Catholic Church clergy.
TRANSPORTATION
Worcester Regional Airport gets a 26 percent budget boost from MassPort. JetBlue plans to begin flights from the airport in the fall.
ENERGY/ENVIRONMENT
Energy forecasters say summer electricity bills should be at their lowest level in four years, largely due to projections for mild summer weather (notwithstanding this week’s sweltering start).
CRIMINAL JUSTICE
A Billerica selectman is leading a petition drive against the temporary expansion of the Middlesex House of Correction, the Lowell Sun reports.
Lawrence police say they have more than 1,000 names of clients that frequented a spa that doubled as a prostitution operation. The list reportedly includes police and fire officials, teachers, lawyers, and city councilors from surrounding towns, the Eagle-Tribune reports.
Police seize a drug lab operating out of a Rowley self-storage unit, the Eagle-Tribune reports.
Peter Gelzinis says the Whitey Bulger trial is mushrooming into an exegesis on criminality in Boston — by wiseguys and guys with badges alike.
MEDIA
A nonprofit New Orleans news outfit has figured out a way to cover charter schools, the Nieman Journalism Lab reports.
Bids for the Boston Globe are due tomorrow.