Hope you didn’t spend too much money on Christmas gifts this year because it appears there will be no shortage of potential candidates knocking on your door for donations to run a Senate campaign for the third time in three years with a fourth on the horizon in 2014. And we have the polls to kick off the season. The race is now on, with President Obama today announcing that Sen. John Kerry will be the next Secretary of State. His confirmation is expected to cruise through the Senate because, well, his name isn’t Susan Rice.

Gov. Deval Patrick is once again expressing his intent to appoint a placeholder, like he did with Paul Kirk after Sen. Edward Kennedy died, who will not run for the job when a special election is held in about five months after the vacancy opens. But Patrick is leaving the door open, likely fearing the same thing that happened two years ago when a lowly back-bench state senator came out of nowhere (well, Wrentham, actually) to grab the seat in a short campaign and upend life as Democrats know it.

You’ve probably read by now that a WBUR-MassINC Polling Group survey shows outgoing Sen. Scott Brown to be the favorite over most of the consensus field, starting with Patrick, who is closest to Brown but still behind by seven points, give or take the margin of error, and moving on down to US Rep. Stephen Lynch, who only garners 24 percent of the support of those surveyed versus Brown’s 51.

The Emerson College Polling Society, though, gives the nod to Patrick over Brown by 48 to 43 percent, with a 2.9 percent margin of error. For good measure, Emerson takes the pulse of a Patrick-Bill Weld match up and finds Patrick would win handily, 50 to 32. Some, though, think Weld is just enjoying the spotlight once again. His friends tell the Globe that the former governor is likely making lots of noise about running for office as a way to raise his profile and drum up business. Naturally, the paper puts this publicity gambit on the front page.

Both polls show Weld’s got as much chance of winning a primary against Brown as a goose at Christmas, with Brown getting about 80 percent in both surveys. The polls show no clear cut winner in the Democratic primary, though that may be because some of the names that are beginning to surface are not included.

Actor/director/Red Sox fanatic Ben Affleck isn’t saying whether he’s in or out. Before anyone else pooh-poohs that idea, remember no one thought a former actor who co-starred with a chimp would live in the White House. Or a former Cosmo model would win the People’s Seat.
The Washington Post lines up the possible contenders for John Kerry’s still-occupied seat (and psst,  Posties, Gov. Patrick is not “term-limited.”) Ted Kennedy Jr. is being wooed by the old guard and some of the new to run for his dad’s old office and while some dismiss him as a carpetbagger from Connecticut, it would be hard for the vast majority of voters to think of a Kennedy as anything other than a Bay Stater. Plus, he owns his uncle JFK’s old house in Hyannisport, which could make a good voting address.

But polls at this point don’t often measure what money and campaigning can change, as the New York Times Nate Silver points out. Going into the final two weeks of the special election against Brown, Attorney General Martha Coakley was bathing in a 15-point lead in a Boston Globe poll. Or so she thought. And the first poll taken in March 2011, showing Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren in a head-to-head match-up with Brown found the now senator-elect behind by 17 points.

Silver also makes the cogent point that all exit polls and current polls show Brown as a really likable guy – but he still lost, either because of his positions or that of Republicans. Given that, Silver, as well as many other observers, think Brown may set his sights on Patrick’s job, where the GOP has had a better track record in recent decades. Whatever the case, political junkies are about to get their stockings full.

—JACK SULLIVAN

(A note to readers: The Download will go on a holiday hiatus after today, returning on January 2.)

BEACON HILL

The Lowell Sun, in an editorial, slams federal Judge Mark Wolf for awarding $700,000 in legal fees to the team representing Michelle Kosilek, an inmate whose original name was Robert and is seeking a sex change operation.

Rep. Stephen “Stat” Smith pleads guilty to federal voter fraud charges. He submitted fraudulent absentee ballots on his own behalf in 2009 and 2010.

The Globe acquires emails showing Annie Dookhan, the former state chemist charged with evidence tampering, coaching prosecutors on drug trial strategy.

Steve Wynn has secured an option to buy 35 acres of land in Everett. The deadline for casino developers to submit a gaming license application is January 15.

MUNICIPAL MATTERS

The New Bedford fire chief and a city councilor say the department’s seven fire stations are in “deplorable” condition and are pushing to repair and replace the buildings, which are an average age of 101 years old.

The Lawrence building inspector has a bunch of demands after returning from a 10-week paid leave for allegedly failing to report $33 million of new development that he had approved, the Eagle-Tribune reports.

Lynn is preparing to include unpaid ticket and code violations in property tax bills, the Item reports.

Cambridge still hasn’t figured out what to do with the Kendall Square foundry building it bought a year ago.

Boston Mayor Tom Menino expects to leave the hospital Sunday. And just in time, too — Steve Murphy just rounded up the votes to stay on as City Council president.

NATIONAL POLITICS/WASHINGTON

The National Review has an inside look at the collapse of House Speaker John Boehner’s “Plan B” and the threat to his leadership that is rising out of the chaos. Paul Krugman revels in the sight of “Republican crazies” run amok. A Wall Street Journal editorial blames the GOP meltdown on President Obama.

A New York Times op-ed argues with yesterday’s Wall Street Journal editorial, claiming Supreme Court nominees got sandbagged long before Robert Bork got Borked.

Newark mayor Cory Booker won’t run for governor of New Jersey, which likely means he’s lining up a Senate run.

ELECTIONS

The father of Sen. Scott Brown dies at the age of 75, the Associated Press reports (via Lowell Sun).

EDUCATION

Gov. Deval Patrick made a surprise appearance at the farewell celebration for retiring Brockton High School Principal Susan Szachowicz. Szachowicz, who was featured in CommonWealth’s 2011 Winter issue, has been widely acclaimed for her stewardship of the school whose students consistently score as well as or better than their suburban counterparts.

Haverhill police are riding school buses today after someone shot BBs at two buses yesterday, the Eagle-Tribune reports.

TRANSPORTATION

Undisclosed developers have pitched a plan to the state to set up tolls on a high-occupancy lane in a nine-mile stretch between Braintree and Norwell.

ENERGY/ENVIRONMENT

Rehoboth officials are mulling a proposal for a 2.4-megawatt solar farm to be constructed on land near the town’s youth soccer fields and operated by Joe Kennedy’s Citizens Energy.

The Cape Cod Bay water quality study finds that seals are not to blame for pollution issues.

MEDIA

The new editor of the Boston Globe is the homegrown Brian McGrory, the Metro columnist who cut his teeth as one of the paper’s first reporters hired when it opened the suburban weekly bureaus. McGrory’s final metro column is here. WBUR’s Sacha Pfeiffer interviews him.

Bloomberg reports that the New York Times paywall is working very well.

END OF THE WORLD

You may or may not be reading this story about other failed “end of days” predictions.