One of two things will happen tonight in Iowa. Mitt Romney might slide backwards into a win in a state he’d initially written off as a nonstarter, thus confirming his invincibility and inevitability as the GOP nominee. Or, Romney might get eclipsed by one of two fringe candidates — an irascible libertarian or a culture warrior whose curtain call came six years ago. Depending on which scenario plays out tonight, either Mitt Romney will be crowned the nominee a week before voting starts in New Hampshire, or the political irrelevance of the Iowa caucuses will be confirmed.
Slate surveys this landscape and asks, so what’s the point? If Rick Santorum and Ron Paul lack the popular support and organizational strength to compete in South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and Ohio, does their ability to win over farmers and Evangelicals really matter in the grand scheme of things? Doesn’t this just confirm the heresy that Jon Huntsman has been spreading, that everybody should skip Iowa and head straight to New Hampshire?
Frank Rich, writing in the latest issue of New York magazine, weighs in with a gloomier, more contrarian take. He sees Romney’s difficulties in Iowa and beyond (since when has an inevitable candidate struggled so mightily to break the 25 percent mark in the polls?) as a canary in the coal mine moment for the GOP. Romney’s inevitability, with or without an Iowa victory, assumes that the 75 percent of the GOP electorate who aren’t with him in the polls will fall in line and vote the way they’re expected to vote. Rich compares this to the belief that the Romney trunk can wag the Republican elephant. And he’s not bullish on the prospects of all these angry, disenfranchised-feeling Republican primary malcontents suddenly lining up behind the guy with all the money, the organization, and the mainstream credibility.
Instead, he says, a year’s worth of polling data cast 75 percent of the modern-day GOP as a “party of revolution,” one that’s hell-bent on reviving the Goldwater era and destroying government, no matter the cost to their own electoral prospects. It’s these voters who jumped at the chance to back Newt Gingrich, who was briefly able to overcome his marital infidelity because he was the only prospective Republican nominee who’d ever actually shut down Washington. And it’s these voters who, for the past year, have backed any bomb-throwing revolutionary over Romney. It’s tough to see how those trend lines treat Romney favorably, Rich argues: “If a candidate can attract only a quarter of his own party after essentially four years of campaigning, where is the groundswell going to come from next November?”
–PAUL MCMORROW
BEACON HILL
Governing magazine highlights 12 state legislators to watch in 2012, and Republican Dan Winslow of Massachusetts is one of them. CommonWealth profiled Winslow in its spring 2011 issue under the headline: “Who does he think he is?”
House Speaker Robert DeLeo makes the case for economic pragmatism in an op-ed entitled “The Massachusetts Miracle” in the New York Daily News.
Secretary of State William Galvin pushes legislation requiring broader disclosure of spending on casino referendums, the Lynn Item reports (via AP).
Lowell Sun columnist Peter Lucas praises Treasurer Steven Grossman for bringing home $300 million of the $8 billion the state parks in foreign banks.
The Mass Factor takes on state political issues from a Danvers cable TV studio, the Salem News reports.
State Sen. Michael Moore says the Legislature plans to take action on student debt this year. Two-thirds of Massachusetts college students carry an average debt of $25,541, according to the story in the Salem News.
Nearly all the film tax credits earned under the state’s incentive program for the industry end up getting sold to outside investors, the Globe reports.
At least two fatalities and three injuries caused by people likely not wearing seat belts in accidents in the state last month has triggered a move on Beacon Hill to update the state’s seat belt laws.
A Wall Street Journal editorial accuses Martha Coakley of suing banks for political fortune.
The Cape Cod Times argues in an editorial that the Lottery should reexamine the formula that determines cash distribution to cities and towns, in light of Treasurer Steve Grossman’s proposal to allow debit card purchases of Lottery tickets.
The MetroWest Daily News takes aim at the state’s public records law in its condemnation of then-Governor Romney’s “audacious and expensive” (but perfectly legal) destruction of records following his term in office.
MUNICIPAL MATTERS
The Eagle-Tribune, in an editorial, says Haverhill Mayor James Fiorentini was right to back off a plan to enforce an ordinance requiring contractors working for the city to make sure 30 percent of their workers live in the city. Fiorentini said he was worried the ordinance might be unconstitutional, but the newspaper call it “just plain dumb.”
The Boston City Council will form a special committee to determine whether the entire city should vote on a proposed casino at Suffolk Downs, but the talk about the effort centers more around political leverage than citywide democracy. City Council President Steve Murphy said it would have been “disrespectful” to name anyone other than pro-casino city councilor Sal LaMatinna to chair the new committee.
The Berkshire Eagle reports from the inauguration of Pittsfield’s new mayor, Daniel L. Bianchi.
Newly inaugurated Marlborough Mayor Arthur Vigeant outlined his agenda for the city yesterday, which includes better customer service by city departments, education, and growth.
GAMBLING
The multi-state Powerball game has been revamped by increasing its cost from $1 to $2 a ticket, raising the jackpot, and improving the odds of winning, from 192,000,000-to-1 to 175,000,000-to-1.
OCCUPY
Chris Faraone, the Phoenix reporter who was all over the Occupy story like no other journo in town, becomes the story in this Columbia Journalism Review “Behind the News” feature on Boston’s “Movement Man.”
ELECTION 2012
Mitt Romney says the presidential race isn’t being driven by money. This, from a guy whose super PAC single-handedly sunk Newt Gingrich. Joe Battenfeld says Romney is following a path blazed by Michael Dukakis.
Keller@Large is in Iowa for the caucuses but freely admits he can’t get a handle on the state’s voters. The Atlantic suggests that voters have remained noncommittal because it’s taken until now for candidates to have real contact with the masses. Weekly Standard publisher William Kristol thinks it’s a good omen (for Rick Santorum, not Kristol) that the candidate was the first person he bumped into as he was checking into his Iowa hotel yesterday. Not sure why, but he nonetheless feels good about Santorum now that they have rubbed shoulders. The Christian Science Monitor reminds us that Democrats are caucusing in Iowa today, too.
The candidates’ pandering to the anti-immigration faction is a loser for the GOP and betrays the conservative legacy of Ronald Reagan, according to the National Review.
BUSINESS/ECONOMY
Radio Boston interviews Noah Berger, president of the Massachusetts Budget and Policy Center, about a new report indicating income inequality is expanding faster in Massachusetts than the nation as a whole.
The Quincy Chamber of Commerce has bucked a national trend of declining membership, growing nearly 25 percent over the last two years.
EDUCATION
In the biggest sign yet that Boston is moving beyond the school wars that once pitted the district school system against charter schools, Mayor Tom Menino appointed Meg Campbell, founder of the vaunted Codman Academy Charter Public School, to a seat on the Boston School Committee.
The Boston public school system is facing a federal lawsuit charging that the system violates state and federal law by delaying evaluation and placement of preschool-age children with special needs.
Joe Nocera brings good news from Central Falls, Rhode Island.
HEALTH CARE
Waste not, want not: Paul Levy kept the blog address for Running a Hospital even after he wasn’t but he also corralled the name Not Running a Hospital and rather than let it go to waste has started moving some hospital and health transparency-related posts and info to that site.
A new study of New York commuters finds many are at risk for hearing loss because of noise pollution with MP3 players being the most significant reason. Via U.S. News & World Report.
ENERGY/ENVIRONMENT
The ethanol subsidy is set to expire, which should drives up gasoline prices by about 4 cents a gallon, USA Today reports.
CRIMINAL JUSTICE
Law enforcement authorities say new forensic evidence may help them identify who killed 10-year-old Holly Piirainen near 20 years ago, MassLive reports.
An off-duty state trooper will not face charges after shooting a woman when he mistook her dogs for a deer while hunting in Norton.