(Illustration via Pixabay by Mickey Mikolas) field_54b3f951675b3

THIS ISSUE BRIEF is part of a series examining a variety of controversial local and national issues, focusing on specific policy proposals that are under active consideration. The premise of these essays, as outlined here and here, is that many important public policy issues are more complicated than the most fervent adherents to either side usually acknowledges, a dynamic that often hinders our ability to engage in thoughtful debate. (Earlier essays in the series have addressed proposals for free community college; free MBTA service; right-to-shelter;  rent control; supervised injection sites; approval of school library books; reparations; voter ID requirements; a moratorium on prison construction; limiting investments in natural gas infrastructure, and universal basic income).  

The Proposal 

Repeal the 2024 gun-control law tightening up and expanding restrictions on the ownership, manufacture and registration of firearms in Massachusetts. 

Background 

As a result of the 2022 US Supreme Court ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association, Inc. v. Bruen, the Massachusetts law giving local police departments authority to issue concealed carry licenses only to individuals who have a “good reason” was effectively struck down as a violation of the Constitution’s Second Amendment. In response, the Legislature took up a gun control bill (H. 4885) to bring state law into compliance with Bruen, while addressing a number of additional issues. 

Among other things, the new law does the following: 

  • Clarifies and expands the ban on assault-style firearms, by defining them as semi-automatic weapons with the capacity to accept a detachable feeding device and certain other features associated with rapid firing, while preventing anyone under the age of 21 from buying such guns. 
  • Requires unique serial numbers to be etched into all manufactured or assembled firearms, which must be registered in a centralized state database. 
  • Prohibits anyone who does not have a “license to carry” from manufacturing a gun or gun parts using a 3-D printer. Such guns must also be imprinted with serial numbers that are registered with the state. 
  • Authorizes school administrators and licensed health care providers to petition the court for “extreme risk protection orders,” in addition to family members, roommates, or dating partners. 

A petition has since been filed to repeal H. 4885 through a so-called “veto referendum” to be included on the November 2026 state ballot. 

Bumper Stickers and Sticking Points 

Gun rights advocates believe that gun ownership is essential for personal safety, individual liberty, and a free society, while gun control activists hold that widespread gun ownership leads inevitably to disorder and deadly violence on a mass scale. 

If Guns are Outlawed, Only Outlaws will have Guns! Gun control laws serve only to restrict the constitutionally protected rights of law-abiding citizens, preventing them from protecting themselves against criminals and an over-reaching (left-wing) government.  

Ban Guns, Not Books! The prevalence of guns and a deeply ingrained (right-wing) gun culture in America leads inevitably to unnecessary deaths, from suicides to domestic violence and from street crime to mass shootings. 

Evidence-Based Case in Favor 

What started out as an effort to adjust Massachusetts state law to comply with the Supreme Court’s ruling in Bruen, ended up as a significant expansion of Massachusetts’s already expansive gun control regulations. 

Prior to the adoption of H. 4885, Massachusetts was ranked by the Giffords Law Center as having some of the strictest gun control laws in the country, with an assault weapons ban, universal license requirements, magazine capacity limits, safe storage regulations, and a so-called “red flag” law preventing people who pose a danger to themselves or others from having access to firearms.   

In 2023, Massachusetts also had the second lowest overall gun death rate in the country with one of the lowest gun homicide rates, too – a position it’s occupied for many years. 

To be sure, there is a correlation between strict gun laws and lower gun deaths, but it’s not clear that one is actually the cause of the other. Moreover, gun violence is a complex social phenomenon, affected by many, often inter-related factors. Importantly, gun violence is correlated with income and poverty, such that the states with higher per-capita income or lower poverty rates tend to have a lower gun death rate. And even though gun violence occurs everywhere, one recent study found that over 90 percent of all firearm-related hospitalizations of children and teens occurs in cities. 

Gun ownership rates are correlated with gun deaths, but some states with more restrictive gun laws have relatively high gun ownership rates and vice versa. For example, the Giffords Law Center gives both Oregon and Massachusetts an A- for their gun laws, but the estimated gun ownership rate in Oregon is over four times higher than Massachusetts.   

According to a Rand Corporation study, gun ownership rates declined steadily in almost all states from 1990 to 2016, including those with less restrictive gun control laws. Rand estimates that the percentage of adults living in households with guns dropped 14 percentage points from 1990 to 2016. The Massachusetts rate over the same period dropped 11 percentage points, while Arizona’s rate dropped 24 percentage points, even though its gun laws are among the least restrictive. 

A 2024 report by Rand finds that most rigorous research on gun control laws is inconclusive regarding their impact on violence and death. According to Rand, regulations that have been most effective include minimum age requirements for gun ownership and standards for preventing in-home child access to firearms. Other policies regarding background record checks, waiting periods, and prohibitions on gun access for people with restraining orders for domestic violence have credible evidence to support a finding of “moderate” impact. Regulations in all these areas have been part of Massachusetts law for years and are not affected by H. 4885. 

No matter how well-intentioned the supporters of H. 4885 are, the practical impact of the law is likely to be minimal, especially given the scope of pre-existing gun control laws in the Commonwealth and the already low rates of gun ownership.   

At the same time, the administrative and enforcement burdens created by the law’s provisions for registering serial numbers and restricting the use of 3-D printers are potentially onerous, intrusive and unworkable. Even the banning of “assault-style” weapons may prove unavailing in the face of the gun industry’s long track record of designing firearms that manage to stay at least one step ahead of the regulators. And involving school administrators and health care workers in proceedings to take guns away from people they think might be dangerous is more likely to lead to litigation, rather than greater safety. 

Evidence-Based Case Opposed 

Over the past five years more than 85 million guns have been manufactured in the United States or imported from abroad, and by one estimate there are over 390 million guns currently in circulation, about the twice the number in 2000. Since the onset of COVID-19, gun purchases have soared, with over 26 million new first-time gun owners since 2020. 

International surveys show the United States has, by far, the highest gun ownership rate of any other country, at 1.2 guns per person. By contrast, war-torn Yemen reportedly has a gun ownership rate of just over 0.5 per person. The United States is ranked sixth in the world when it comes to its rate of gun homicides, behind only Jamaica, Ecuador, Honduras, Belize, and Mexico. 

Numerous studies have confirmed a positive correlation between gun ownership rates and gun homicides. According to a 2013 study by Boston University researchers, every 1 percent increase in gun ownership is associated with a 0.9 percent increase in firearm homicides.  

Gun ownership is also strongly implicated in suicides. Almost 60 percent of all gun deaths in the United States are suicides. Over half of all suicides in the US are committed with a gun, accounting for over 27,000 deaths per year. In 2023, close to 150 people in Massachusetts committed suicide with a firearm.   

At the same time, there is a strong pattern of more restrictive gun laws being associated with relatively low levels of gun ownership and vice versa. The five states with the highest gun ownership rates have gun laws that are graded F, by the Giffords Law Center. Similarly, the five states with the lowest gun ownership rates have gun laws that are graded A or A-; they also happen to have the five lowest gun death rates. 

Massachusetts has one of the lowest levels of gun ownership and gun violence in the country, with fewer guns per capita than any state other than New Jersey and fewer gun deaths per capita than all states, except Rhode Island. A central reason for the relative safety of Massachusetts is the strength of its gun laws, which get an A grade from the Giffords Law Center, as high as any other state, thanks in part to the new provisions enacted in 2024. 

H. 4885 was narrowly targeted to address specific gaps in existing state laws that have emerged over the past several years. The Bruen decision weakened the ability of authorities to restrict gun access for people at risk of harming themselves or others, so the state’s “red flag” law needed to be strengthened to enable school administrators and health care professionals to report direct evidence of potential violent behavior. The growing popularity of 3-D printers and easy-to-assemble parts kits required an extension of licensure, registration, and serialization regulations to prevent evasion of “ghost gun” laws. And the development of new assault-style firearms that were not listed in the underlying 1998 statute required a shift to defining relevant gun features, rather than simply naming specific types of weapons. 

Certain specific gun control policies have stronger effects than others, such as those limiting gun access for minors or universal background checks and waiting periods. But it’s the combined impact of these and other policies, including those that are part of H. 4885, that’s generally more significant, creating multiple and overlapping obstacles to unsafe gun ownership and use that can address potentially deadly gaps in any one policy, while conveying a broader public health message that all guns need to be treated with extreme care and caution.  

Potential for Common Ground or Higher Ground 

Gun control advocates argue that firearms are inherently dangerous and therefore regulations on gun owners and their access to certain types of guns are essential for personal and public safety. Gun rights supporters, on the other hand, claim that these bureaucratic solutions are ineffective and only serve to burden law-abiding gun owners who do not pose any special risk to themselves or society. 

Of course, America is already awash in guns and there can be little dispute that they contribute to lethal violence, since they’re involved in over three-quarters of homicides and more than half of suicides. Even though Massachusetts has fewer than most other states, there are still about 100,000 gun owners in the Commonwealth, which translates into several hundred thousand guns. But this installed base of firearms isn’t going anywhere, nor is the right to purchase or manufacture even more guns, with or without state regulation – not to mention the illegal trafficking of guns from out of state.   

Where both sides might be able to agree is that policies should be considered to reduce gun violence, in terms of accidents, domestic violence, suicide, and criminal activity. Gun regulations and their enforcement alone cannot fully address these problems, although more robust and ongoing education and training in gun safety and violence prevention for all gun owners might help.   

Potential strategies to reduce gun violence that are not specifically about firearms include:  

  • quicker and stronger responses to incidents of domestic abuse, including counseling and supportive options for victims. 
  • more proactive interventions when there are early warning signs of a potential suicide. 
  • expansion of community policing, including greater uniformed police presence in neighborhoods with the highest concentrations of gun violence, complemented by ongoing civilian outreach and support for gang-affiliated or at-risk youth and expanded out-of-school-time educational and recreational resources. 

James Peyser served most recently as Massachusetts secretary of education under Gov. Charlie Baker. 

Data: 

  • Estimated household gun ownership rate in US (2016): 32 percent 
  • Estimated household gun ownership rate in MA (2016): 9 percent (second lowest in US) 
  • Gun death rate in US (2023): 13.7/100,000 
  • Gun death rate in MA (2022): 3.7/100,000 (second lowest in US) 
  • Gun suicides as percent of total gun deaths in US (2023): 58 percent 
  • Gun suicides as percent of total gun deaths in MA (2022): 55 percent 
  • Percent of violent victimization involving a gun in US (2022): 9.7 percent 
  • Percent of homicides committed with a gun in US (2023): 76 percent 
  • Percent of suicides committed with a gun in US (2023): 55 percent 

Sources and Resources: 

US Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics: https://bjs.ojp.gov/ 

Bureau or Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives: https://www.atf.gov/resource-center/data-statistics 

Center for Disease Control, National Center for Health Statistics: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/firearm_mortality/firearm.htm 

Rand Corporation: https://www.rand.org/research/gun-policy.html 

Pew Research Center: https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/politics-policy/political-issues/gun-policy/ 

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Center for Gun Violence Solutions: https://publichealth.jhu.edu/center-for-gun-violence-solutions/about 

Giffords Law Center, Annual Gun Law Scorecard: https://www.pewresearch.org/topic/politics-policy/political-issues/gun-policy/