President-elect Joe Biden. (Photo via Creative Commons by Gage Skidmore) field_54b3f951675b3

IN JUNE 1858, Abraham Lincoln famously said “A house divided against itself can not stand.” Now, 165 years later, the 118th Congress has officially begun and the divide is deeper than we have seen in generations.

The Democrats remain in control of the Senate while a new Republican majority takes over in the House – truly a house divided.  In the last 32 years, we have become accustomed to divided government. Bipartisanship has all but evaporated and as a result–due to partisan gerrymandering–the number of competitive congressional districts have dwindled. The good news for Democrats is that a divided congress is historically beneficial for a Democratic president seeking re-election.

With the 2022 midterms in the rearview mirror, it is time for the next presidential election cycle to get in gear. President Biden is readying his re-election effort while GOP White House hopefuls have eased into the pre-primary primary, releasing their books, visiting early primary states, and sharpening their criticism of the Democratic administration while the public braces itself for an onslaught of punditry and prognostications. However, history may be the best indicator of what the future holds. In six of the last seven presidential elections, Democrats have won the popular vote when Republicans control at least one chamber of congress.

Between the start of the 103rd congress in January 1991 and today there has only been one-party control of both chambers and White House in 12 1/2 years. In the remaining 17 1/2 years, there has been at least one chamber of congress controlled by the party not in the White House or both chambers controlled by the party opposite the president (the defection of Sen.Jim Jeffords to the Democrats in May 2001 accounts for the one-half year).

Republicans took control of the House and Senate in 1994, 2010, and the House in the 2022 midterm elections.  After that historic GOP victory in 1994, Bill Clinton was re-elected with 49 percent of the vote winning 31 states plus DC.  With Republicans still in control of the House and Senate in 2000, Democratic Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote but ultimately lost the election in the Supreme Court.  Following another historic GOP victory in 2010, Barack Obama was re-elected with 51 percent of the votes, winning 26 states plus DC.

There are two outliers to this equation.  George H. W. Bush was defeated for reelection in 1992 despite Democrats controlling both the House and the Senate.  But that year was unique. The country was coming off 12 years of one party in the White House, something that had not happened since the days of FDR/Truman.  And more recently Hillary Clinton lost to Donald Trump in 2016 despite GOP control of both the House and the Senate.  But the anomaly of this scenario is that, like Gore, Clinton won the popular vote.  It should also be noted that she was trying to extend one party control of the White House beyond eight years, putting her in a similar situation to the first George Bush.

Ultimately, the success of the Democratic candidates in these elections can be directly attributed to the obstructionist approach taken by Republicans when given the opportunity to lead. Whether it be the Newt Gingrich-led government shutdown in the 1990s, the Tea Party in the 2000s, or the Trump effect which has permeated the GOP House caucus today, one thing is for certain – today’s Republican members of Congress are spectacular foils to Democratic presidents. Of course, as always, the economy, international affairs, and the never-ending culture wars will play roles in the next presidential election, but history says the safe money is on a Biden re-election.

Nick Clemons has over 25 years experience in government and politics. His first campaign job was on the Clinton/Gore re-election campaign in 1996 and subsequently worked on the presidential campaigns of John Kerry in 2004 and Hillary Clinton in 2008, leading a come-from-behind victory in the New Hampshire primary on the latter. Joe Caiazzo has over a decade of experience in politics, including senior roles on the presidential campaigns of Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton. He is a veteran of numerous campaigns including Sheldon Whitehouse, Elizabeth Warren, and Joe Kennedy III.  Both Clemons and Caiazzo are partners at The JCN Group.