A wave of sky-high oil prices, the completion of significant additional renewable energy sources, and a Super El Niño weather event are threatening to collide and inject new uncertainty into Bay Staters’ electric bills this winter just as temperatures begin to dip.

While the situation is clear for the 20 percent of Massachusetts households warmed by home heating oil, with costs up 60 percent compared to this time last year, it’s far more uncertain when it comes to electricity.

Should New England burn oil for power generation at some point this winter, as it does every year, that would be a much more expensive endeavor this time.

Those costs, to say nothing of the climate impacts, could soar if oil usage emerges anything close to last winter, the coldest in 20 years, when oil accounted for 28 percent of power generation. During a punishing cold snap in January and February, it even at times topped 40 percent.

Looming over it all are soaring utility bills and the annual rinse-and-repeat cycle of turning to high-polluting oil-fired electric generation, as power demand is projected to keep rising across the region in the years ahead.

Already, Massachusetts residents are grappling with energy bills up 38 percent on average since 2020 in a state ranked fourth-worst for energy insecurity among lower-income people.

The good news is that this season, new offshore wind capacity from the recently-completed Vineyard Wind and Revolution Wind projects and forecasts of a milder winter could blunt the need to turn to oil in the first place.

But if the coming winter is chillier than expected, or if anything fails, New England could again be forced to turn to oil. Recall the inconveniently-timed 12-day shutdown of the new hydropower transmission line just as frigid temperatures hit New England last winter, and the inexplicable two-week pause from May into June.

Plus, ISO New England, the regional grid operator, is forecasting peak demands slightly higher than last winter, according to its newly-released outlook.

More Context

• ‘It’s a stressful life’: How energy debt is straining 800K Massachusetts utility customers (October 2026)
• Future of Mass Save in limbo as Legislature stalls on energy bill (October 2026)
• Healey asks Trump administration to speed up review of planned gas expansion in latest sign of shifting energy politics (October 2026)