It’s hardly a groundswell of support, but based on the expectation of paltry support for an infusion of state money to bail out the beleaguered MBTA, a new Boston Globe poll showing 40 percent of voters statewide support a state bailout was taken as encouraging news by some T boosters.
Andrew Smith of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, the Globe’s pollster, tells the paper he was expecting the numbers to go 2-to-1 against a state bailout, given voters’ shaky feelings about the economy and employment security. Stephanie Pollack, of Northeastern University’s Dukakis Center for Urban and Regional Policy, calls the poll result “good news,” and suggests it shows the public is coming to understand how vital the T is not only to individual commuters but to the regional economy as a whole. (Not surprisingly, the poll showed a clear geographic gradient, with support for state help for the T strongest inside Route 128, and levels of support falling off the farther west residents live.)
While short of a majority, the 40 percent support for state aid to the T topped the 36 percent of voters who oppose a bailout. (Twenty-six percent weren’t sure or had no opinion.) But is the poll really such good news for those hoping for a grand fix for T finances? Support for a state solution may be stronger than anticipated, but as the Globe story notes, the poll did not gauge residents’ support for specific revenue solutions, such as gas tax. Nor did it explain that the state already supports the T with some nearly $1 billion a year in funding. There may be far less support for the steps needed to fix the T’s finances than there is for the general idea that we ought to put the state’s principal transit system on secure footing.
The poll may represent an inverted version of the public opinion paradox seen with the Affordable Care Act. In the case of Obamacare, the broad idea of the sweeping health care reform law draws negative views, while many of its component parts enjoy fairly strong support.
All of this has lead some to ask, “Are voters dumb?” “The first lesson you learn as a pollster is that people are stupid,” Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling, a Democratic polling firm, told Politico’s Alexander Burns, last month. “I tell a client trying to make sense of numbers on a poll that are inherently contradictory that at least once a week.”
Matt Corley, writing in the American Prospect, says the stupid-voter narrative is, well, stupid, because it confuses difficulty grasping complex issues with lack of background on an issue. Voters are not stupid, he says; they just don’t necessarily pay close attention to politics, yet nonetheless tend to offer an opinion when polled. Stupidity, George Washington University political scientist John Sides tells him, “implies a lack of aptitude or intelligence,” while the real problem is ignorance, “since a lot of non-stupid people don’t necessarily follow politics very closely.”
Some contradictory polling responses seem to be more a function of a deficit of common sense than lack of detailed knowledge of politics. But Corley nonetheless has a point, even if it doesn’t change the fact that polling results sometimes just don’t make much sense.
“In the end,” he writes, “it’s stupid to call voters dumb, but it’s ignorant to claim they’re well-informed.”
–MICHAEL JONAS
BEACON HILL
State Sen. Steven Baddour tells Jon Keller why he’s stepping down, though he doesn’t say much more than he already has about family and opportunity. The former chairman of the Transportation Committee does, however, give his take on the MBTA fare hikes.
The state is putting the finishing touches on a tax credit program to spur market rate housing construction in about 20 economically challenged cities.
Attorney General Martha Coakley indicts a Lowell man for running a prostitution ring, the Lowell Sun reports.
The New England Center for Investigative Reporting issues a report on state integrity that was researched by three other groups. Massachusetts ranked 10th with a grade of C, according to the story in the Lowell Sun.
Senate president-turned-lobbyist Robert Travaglini gets into the social impact bond business.
Boston Mayor Tom Menino gets his Terri Murrays confused.
Joseph Kearns Goodwin, son of Harvard historian Doris, eyes a vacant state Senate seat.
MUNICIPAL MATTERS
The debate over the proposed wind turbines on town land in Fairhaven is expected to be the prime force behind today’s municipal elections there.
The Republican salutes the Springfield Housing Authority for cleaning up its act in the past four years.
A mystery group is said to be planning a $60 million performing arts center along with retail shops and restaurants in Haverhill, the Eagle-Tribune reports.
What are the pros and cons of urban versus rural casinos? The Republican surveys some opinions.
The Eagle-Tribune, in an editorial, says rebuilding the Lawrence police force is the key to repairing the city’s image.
NATIONAL POLITICS/WASHINGTON
Did you hear the one about the dinner party one-time SDS leader Bill Ayers hosted for Andrew Breitbart? It’s evidently no joke.
After learning that a couple six-figure lottery winners were still collecting food stamps, Michigan passes a law prohibiting that from happening again, Governing reports.
ELECTION 2012
US Sen. Scott Brown and his likely Democratic opponent, Elizabeth Warren, are in a statistical dead-heat, according to the latest Boston Globe poll.
Joan Vennochi says Brown is dumb — like a fox. It’s an idea Maurice Cunningham also put forward recently in this CommonWealth piece.
Women are abandoning the GOP in droves, according to a new USA Today/Gallup poll (via a story in Talking Points Memo). Mitt Romney is losing ground among women voters.
The campaign to recall Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is stealing a lot of the thunder from tomorrow’s GOP presidential primary there.
Sincerity in politics is overrated, the author of a forthcoming book on the topic argued in yesterday’s Globe Ideas section.
Herald columnist Kimberly Atkins wonders why congressional hopeful Richard Tisei’s no-PAC challenge doesn’t include super PACs.
BUSINESS/ECONOMY
Jobless rate in Gloucester remains above 10 percent, the Gloucester Times reports.
The National Review says we should follow Canada’s lead and stop producing the costly penny and take it out of circulation.
The Federal Reserve will fine eight banks for sloppy foreclosure processing.
EDUCATION
School leaders in Boston are worried that a temporary infusion of federal funds to low-performing schools will translate into only temporary improvement in student achievement.
A teacher’s aide in Michigan is fired for refusing to hand over her Facebook password to the school superintendent.
Some senior citizens are still burdened by student loan debt and are having their Social Security checks garnished.
HEALTH CARE
Paul Levy and David Stephenson write an op-ed in the Boston Business Journal calling on the state to release the data on “all payer claims” it collects so researchers and administrators can access it to help control health care costs.
Freetown officials are looking to start early spraying for EEE because of the concern of mosquitoes hatching earlier because of the warm winter.
ENERGY/ENVIRONMENT
Rising water temperatures in the ocean are starting to affect marine life, including lobsters, the Gloucester Times reports.
CRIMINAL JUSTICE
Sen. Scott Brown will join Plymouth District Attorney Timothy Cruz in Brockton this morning to call for the extradition of Luis Guaman, an Ecuadorean charged in the murder of a Brockton woman and her 2-year-old son.
