MASSACHUSETTS TAX REVENUES took a dive during November and are running 4.3 percent below forecasted levels through the first five months of the fiscal year, reinforcing concerns that state government needs to slow its pace of spending.
The Department of Revenue reported on Tuesday that tax collections in November totaled $2.25 billion, nearly 11 percent below the state forecast and 5.5 percent less than last year. Through the first five months of the fiscal year, revenues are running $627 million below the forecast used to draft this year’s budget and 1 percent more than the same period last year.
Adding to concerns, the state’s tax revenues in November were not affected by the passage of a major tax cut in October. That tax cut should start having an impact on state tax revenues starting in December or January, officials said.
Revenue Department officials cautioned that November and year-to-date results should not be used as an indicator of what’s to come for the remainder of the fiscal year. But on Monday analysts at a legislative hearing to rough out tax revenue forecasts for fiscal 2025 suggested revenues are likely to remain below forecasted levels through the remainder of fiscal 2024, which runs through June.
Sen. Michael Rodrigues, the budget chief in the Senate, raised concerns at the Monday hearing that fiscal storm clouds are on the horizon. He also gave his colleagues an early warning about the November revenue numbers that came out on Tuesday, saying “I don’t think they’re going to be pretty.”
The leaders of Chambers of Commerce across Massachusetts sent a letter to Beacon Hill leaders on November 21 raising concerns about the rising levels of state spending. According to the letter, total general fund spending increased 26.7 percent between fiscal 2018 and fiscal 2022, a time when the Boston-area consumer price index grew at a 14.7 percent pace.
“This approach is not sustainable and not responsible,” the business leaders warned.

