THE REGION’S POWER GRID OPERATOR issued a report on Thursday forecasting that New England’s thirst for electricity will remain flat for the next decade, but the fuel source for that power will tilt fairly dramatically toward natural gas.
ISO-New England, the grid operator, said it is forecasting that total annual use of electric energy will not increase in New England over the next 10 years, although peak demand in the summer months is likely to increase .6 percent annually. Peak demand is important because the grid operator pieces together power-generating resources to cover peak demand.
The fuel sources used to meet the region’s power needs are likely to shift fairly dramatically over the next decade. The grid operator said natural gas accounted for 43 percent of the region’s power generation last year, a percentage that is forecasted to rise to 49 percent in 2018 and nearly 57 percent in 2024.
The report said the flat energy demand forecast is due to energy efficiency efforts in the six states and the expansion of solar power. Solar power resources totaled 908 megawatts of so-called nameplate capacity, meaning 908 megawatts is the amount of power that would be generated if the solar panels operate at 100 percent capacity. In fact, solar facilities average about 40 percent capacity during the summer, meaning the electricity output is significantly less than the nameplate amount. Other reports have put the year-round capacity at about 13 percent.
In the report, ISO-New England said the region’s heavy reliance on natural gas carries risks in the form of reliability issues if the supply of natural gas is disrupted and higher prices for electricity when natural gas supplies fall short of demand and prices skyrocket.
The Baker administration is attempting to address natural gas concerns by authorizing local electric utilities to solicit contracts for natural gas capacity from companies proposing pipelines into the region. A request for proposals was issued on Oct. 23 and pipeline companies are expected to respond by Nov. 13.
One has to wonder why we are about to increase rates sky high to cover the cost of new natural gas pipelines to Pennsylvania and high voltage power lines to Canada when projections for electricity demand are flat.
The reason is obvious. All of this is brought about to satisfy the state and regional mandates for renewable energy, mainly wind and solar. Policymakers on Beacon Hill are forcing the early retirement of coal and nuclear power on the false premise that wind and solar will replace them. As the article points out, the system is driven by peak demand which occurs in the middle of winter and the middle of summer. Unlike coal and nuclear, neither wind or solar can be relied upon to be available for peak demand. As a result natural gas piped in from Pennsylvania, and hydro coming in from Canada will have to be relied upon to avoid blackouts and brownouts during peak demand periods. Both Pennsylvania and Canada have peak demand periods that coincide with New England raising the strong possibility that both will curtail exports to satisfy domestic demand, starving New England for energy when we need it the most.
Policymakers need to recognize that renewable energy is not ready for prime time. Forcing ISO-NE to plan for 25% or more renewable energy penetration in the next 10 years has the unintended consequence of skyrocketing rates, unreliable grid operation (blackouts & brownouts), and little to no carbon avoidance.
If I understand some of the numbers that have been thrown around by the Coalition to Lower Energy Costs, New England generates about 50% of its electricity from natural gas with 1 bcf/day. Increasing that to 57% would result in a maximum of 1.14 bcf/day. Please explain why we are adding nearly 3 bcf/day of natural gas to lower electricity costs. It sounds to me like a stranded cost burden for electric ratepayers at best and fraudulent .used of electric ratepayers to subsidize the gas utilities and export operators at worst.