EDUCATIONAL LEADERS in Massachusetts have, for years, warned that slowing birth rates and an affordability crisis were leaving districts facing dire student enrollment projections. Just over a year into the second Trump administration schools say their budgets and school communities are at risk from further enrollment drops related to stepped up immigration enforcement.

This week on The Codcast, CommonWealth Beacon reporters Jennifer Smith and Hallie Claflin discuss Claflin’s coverage of immigration action and enrollment. They zero in on the state’s Gateway Cities, which are home to a disproportionate share of Massachusetts’s immigrant population.

Public school enrollment data released in January “showed something really striking, which is that Massachusetts – which has obviously become a target of Trump’s crackdown on immigration – lost over 15,000 students from fall 2024 to fall 2025,” Claflin said. “And so that actually brings total enrollment in the state to its lowest level in over three decades, and I think the most striking part of this is that a large part of that enrollment drop actually came from a really steep decline in English language learners.”

Schools in Massachusetts do not collect information on student legal status, but districts can use other data points to get a sense of which demographics are declining. By cross referencing English language learners with categories like “newcomers” or foreign-born students who have been enrolled in the state’s public schools for just a few years, some schools officials say it’s becoming more clear that immigration escalation is chipping away at their student bodies.

The financial impacts can be dire for already stretched school budgets. Chelsea’s 350-student drop means a $6.7 million loss. Lynn is facing a $9 million budget shortfall from its 487-student drop.

At state budget hearings this month, the state’s economic development secretariat said fear over immigration action could cause serious problems for Massachusetts’s economy, which has long relied on an inflow of immigrants to balance out the outflow of residents leaving our expensive state for cheaper pastures.

Gov. Maura Healey this week called for ICE to provide complete and accurate information on every person arrested in Massachusetts by federal immigration authorities since January 2025. The state also launched a portal for the public to submit reports of “alleged misconduct” by federal immigration agents.

The schools are working at the same time to reassure nervous communities and plan for financial hits.

The superintendent of Chelsea Public Schools told Claflin that they have been advocating with their state legislators for “a one-time soft landing payment” because of the unexpectedly high drop off and budget hit.

“But then, I think that district leaders are also realistic about that, because, of course, what’s gonna happen next year?” Claflin said. “It seems like, from current data, month to month enrollment is continuing to decline, and what if next year there’s an even steeper decline in enrollment? We have a number of years left in the Trump presidency and in immigration enforcement.”

On the episode, Smith and Claflin discuss how schools try to track the enrollment impact of immigration ramp ups (6:00) and the psychological toll on school committees (16:00), and review how ongoing economic pressures were already impacting enrollment levels (22:00).