DOOR-KNOCKERS WILL NOT start counting the number of Americans for another four-plus years, but amid an intense redistricting fight in other parts of the country, the 2030 Census in Massachusetts is already in the spotlight. 

The Census process has always carried massive political stakes, but this cycle has become more fraught after Texas Republicans reshaped their political districts in August to add House seats to their majority. Because the Census determines the number of seats each state is allotted in Congress – as well as federal funding for certain programs – officials in Massachusetts are under more pressure this cycle to make sure that every resident is counted. 

“This work never really stops,” Sen. William Brownsberger, who leads the Senate Committee on the Census, said in an interview. 

Democrats who control the political map-drawing process in Massachusetts have no plans to reshape the state’s congressional districts partway through the decade. (California voters will decide in a November 4 special election whether to temporarily redraw their maps to shift five Republican seats to Democrats, a measure Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom pushed for to offset the Texas changes.) 

Yet there’s still plenty of labor ahead for state and municipal leaders, who need to ensure every new housing unit built in the past five years is on the Census Bureau’s radar, convince their constituents to answer questions about themselves during a period of aggressive immigration enforcement, and monitor population trends for a hint at whether Massachusetts might gain or lose a seat in the US House, where all nine of the state’s representatives are Democrats. 

That’s a particular sticking point for President Donald Trump, who took aim at the Bay State this summer, contending that Massachusetts has highly gerrymandered districts and that his vote share (about 36 percent in 2024) should have translated into at least one GOP representative in Congress. 

Most Republicans in the state House and Senate supported the congressional map drawn after the last Census, and GOP Gov. Charlie Baker signed it into law. 

“Massachusetts is a state in which there are a percentage of people who vote for Donald Trump, but those people are distributed across the state in every district, so redrawing the districts wouldn’t really change the balance at all,” Brownsberger said. “There’s very little prospect of cooking the books to elect a Republican.” 

Just past the midpoint in the decade, much of the Census preparation focuses on housing. Brownsberger said the Census Bureau develops a list of “every single housing unit in the country,” which becomes the primary foundation for the actual population count. 

“That list is incredibly important, and getting it right is not easy,” Brownsberger said. “Addresses are constantly being added as new construction happens. Addresses are being taken away as demolitions happen and as buildings are replaced. It’s not easy to know what’s inside any given apartment building.” 

Cities and towns will get a chance in the next few years to influence the Census Bureau’s master address file. 

Susan Strate, senior program manager of the UMass Donahue Institute’s population estimates program, said getting the most accurate housing inventory possible is critical to the population count.  

New York state lost a U.S. House seat and an Electoral College vote after the 2020 Census after falling 89 residents short of the amount needed to keep its delegation at the same size. 

“We know that just a handful of missing addresses has the potential to have a really large impact,” Strate said at a hearing Brownsberger’s committee hosted on September 22. 

Some communities, especially those that are larger and wealthier, are more prepared for this work as they have experienced staff who have been around for multiple Census cycles. Others have limited expertise on hand; Brownsberger described one town that uses “basically a Post-It note system” for tracking new addresses. 

The state’s fiscal year 2026 budget includes nearly $1.3 million for “technical assistance” with Census preparation, but Brownsberger said the Legislature “probably [is] going to need to continue to put money into that, maybe even more money.”  

Another variable is that the state’s housing inventory in 2030 will be different than it was in 2020, especially if the Healey administration’s goal of generating significant new production to drive down prices proves successful. That means more homes need to get properly tracked and added to Census Bureau’s master list. 

Much of the latest housing construction has been multifamily, Brownsberger said, where getting an exact count of new units “is not going to be easy.” 

Since the last decennial Census, Beacon Hill has tried to spur more development with funding and some policy reforms such as allowing accessory dwelling units by right on all single-family properties across the state. 

ADUs, sometimes known as in-law suites, are additional structures built on a homeowner’s property where others can live. In the first six months of 2025, local officials in 170 communities approved construction of at least 550 ADUs, Healey’s office announced last month. 

Because they are added onto existing single-family lots, officials could have a trickier time tracking each of those new units in the latest housing inventory compared to larger, more obvious developments. 

Brownsberger said he expects his committee to host additional hearings in the coming months about several other pressure points, including the accuracy of Census measurements, how the Bay State’s population is trending halfway through the decade, and changes to how the Census asks about race and ethnicity. 

Under changes approved by the Biden administration, the 2030 Census will ask participants a single question about their “race and/or ethnicity” to which they can select multiple replies, including Latino and a new “Middle Eastern or North African” category. That’s a change from past iterations, which asked separately about Hispanic or Latino origin. 

Many local leaders warn that the Trump administration’s ramped-up deportation campaign could instill fear in immigrant communities. If some immigrants are unwilling to participate in the Census, it could leave Massachusetts undercounted and therefore at greater risk of losing a congressional seat or federal funding. 

“Trying to build that trust is always a challenge. It’s going to be an especially difficult challenge in the wake of the current immigration enforcement,” Brownsberger said. “Even if that enforcement stops or changes or is better focused on people with criminal backgrounds, that has done a lot of harm to people’s willingness to talk to government officials.” 

Some activists warn that certain segments of the country, especially Hispanic and Latino communities, could be further discouraged from participating if the Census Bureau adds a question about citizenship status. 

The first Trump administration sought to ask about citizenship during the 2020 Census, but the U.S. Supreme Court blocked the effort. Many Republicans appear to be eyeing another push for the upcoming cycle. 

How the federal government resolves those points of contention will carry massive downstream impacts. 

“The Census,” said Strate, “is about data, money, and power.”