All eyes are on how state lawmakers will wedge 10 incumbents into nine congressional districts. But first, and with potentially more impact, the legislative cartographers have to figure out how to save themselves and their power base.

With the spotlight still on how the Legislature will treat minorities in the wake of former House Speaker Thomas Finneran’s federal conviction for obstruction of justice during the last redistricting, it’s safe to say blacks, Hispanics, and Asians, with their booming population count, especially in Massachusetts cities, will not be pushed aside in this go-around. That, plus the fact most minorities vote pretty reliably Democratic, will ensure their equitable treatment.

Less certain is how Republicans will fare, and while the Democrat-dominated Legislature may gleefully try to draw them out of the picture, at least one expert is warning they do so at their own peril.

The big population increases “are in areas like the [Interstate] 495 beltway, the suburbs in the middle of the state, and around Worcester,” says Michael Kryzanek, a professor of political science at Bridgewater State University. “Those are seriously strong Republican areas that will continue to be a base for expanded Republican influence. This is the beginning of the change.”

“While the Democrats still control it and try to design the districts, this is the beginning of a trend that will not be stopped,” says Kryzanek, author of a number of books, including, most recently, Debates, Differences and Divisions: The 25 Issues That Shape American Politics. “You can’t fight the fact that these are white, educated, high-tech professionals who have in the past voted for Republicans, are likely to vote for Republicans now and in the future will continue to vote for Republicans.”

How the legislative districts are drawn is important because of who and how – who makes the decisions about how the state budget pie gets divvied up. For decades, suburban residents have screamed about the disproportionate amount of state education funding being funneled into urban school districts that don’t have a strong tax base. If the population shifts rule the maps, that debate may take a new turn.

Kryzanek, a member of Whitman’s school committee as well as the local Democratic town committee, says the legislative redistricting will be the battleground for a big shift in redistributing local aid. “Gov. Patrick and the Boston-area Speakers have clearly been pumping money into urban schools to help them pass MCAS,” he says. “They need the money, there’s no arguing that, but the question is what do we get out of it?”

There has always been some grumbling that the State House is Boston-centric in its power structure, but the Census data could shift some of that power to the middle of the state. Berkshire, Franklin and Hampden counties, where Democrats thrive, had the slowest growth in the state, with some areas losing ground. Boston had a nearly 5 percent increase but much of that was from the spike in minority population, which could shift the traditional power structure if the maps are drawn simply along the population lines as envisioned by the Constitution.

It’s interesting that the leadership of the Legislature’s redistricting committee consists of two white males and two minority females. But even more important is where they hang their hats. The co-chairs are from Brighton and Amherst, the co-vice chairs from Springfield and Jamaica Plain. East and West. And you can bet they’ll all protect their turf.

“This is such an inside ball game,” says Stephen Crosby, dean of the McCormack School of Policy and Global Studies at UMass Boston. “You’re having a committee appointed by people who have a vested interest in keeping the status quo.”

The Census shows there’s a white flight to the suburbs, with Worcester County experiencing the biggest percentage gains in overall population and the Middlesex County suburbs having relatively significant increases as well, with whites representing the biggest spikes. Those are both areas where Sen. Scott Brown did well, and the base is growing.

Traditional Republican strongholds like Cape Cod lost population, making them vulnerable to slicing and dicing in ways that make for more Dem-friendly districts. Freshman state Rep. David Vieira, for example, a Republican from Falmouth, which lost nearly 3.5 percent of its population from 2000, could end up being a constituent of Democratic Rep. Demetrius Atsalis, who happens to be the lone Cape Cod representative on the Special Joint Committee of Redistricting.

Areas of Plymouth and Norfolk counties along the coast are becoming increasingly red in their voting patterns, and that could prove troublesome for lawmakers who have to deal with the loss of population in staunchly Democratic Brockton.

But try as Democrats might, Kryzanek says their attempts to hang on could, at best, be shoveling sand against the incoming tide.

“This is all about setting the stage in keeping Massachusetts Democratic and blue in the face of Republican rising,” he says. “I think it’s an inevitable change coming, and as a Democrat I hate to say that. They’ll do what they can to ward it off. In the end, it will only be buying a little time.”

Crosby, unlike Kryzanek, thinks there’s little chance Democrats will mess with Republicans for the simple reason there are not many to mess with and no reason to bother. He says because of the dominance of Democrats, coupled with the growth of and attention paid to minorities, the Legislature has an opportunity to break beyond the bonds of political tradition and do the right thing. But he’s not holding his breath.

“The Commonwealth does have an incredible opportunity here to go out of their way, go out of our way, to try to redistrict demographically and not protect incumbent seats,” says Crosby, who served under a Republican administration in the last redistricting. “It’s a no-brainer in the real world but in the world of politics, that’s awfully hard.”