IN A RECENT Commonwealth Beacon op-ed, Michael S. Giaimo, director of the American Petroleum Institute’s (API) northeast region, posed several seemingly dire questions about current planning to “electrify everything,” a key component of the region‘s and the nation’s long-term strategy to achieve the ultimate goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions no later than 2050.

On its face, API’s observation that “the electrification movement is a massive undertaking”that deserves a “pragmatic approach that looks to reduce emissions as quickly as possible through advancements in technology” is true. But API fails its own test. Its approach is anything but pragmatic and would instead lock us into relying on the same, increasingly outdated infrastructure that has caused the current crisis.

Our efforts must focus on building a modern electric grid that embraces the wide array of new, clean, reliable, and cost-effective technologies while rapidly downsizing fossil fuel infrastructure. Propelled by new technology solutions, the outcome of the clean energy transition will be more affordable, more equitable, more resilient, and healthier for all.

Massachusetts’ Clean Energy and Climate Plan (CECP) for 2050, released a year ago, modeled the “least-cost pathway to achieve net zero in 2050” and came to the conclusion that widespread electrification was an essential element to cost-effectively addressing climate change. For example, by 2050, the plan calls for 97 percent of light-duty vehicles to be electrified, 2 million homes to rely exclusively on air-source heat pumps for space heating, and “significant advancement and investments” in the electric distribution system. Not only is this pathway the lowest cost solution to addressing climate change, the CECP also estimates it will result in approximately 65,000 additional full-time jobs and up to $4.7 billion in health benefits in the Commonwealth.

It is undeniable that our grid must expand substantially to enable the decarbonization we need across buildings, transportation, and other sectors of the economy and remove the detrimental health and cost burdens imposed by fossil fuels, particularly on those in low-income housing and communities. But for electric grids, “change” has been the sole constant since their inception. For example, the US electric power sector delivered 329 terawatt hours (TWh) of electricity in 1950 and 4,090 terawatt hours of electricity in 2022: a 12.4x increase. But dramatic growth alone does not account for all the notable changes to the grid. Due to increasing rates of energy efficiency, the nation is producing more goods and providing more services with improved efficiency, constituting a notable decoupling of GDP growth and electricity consumption. In other words, as dramatic as the growth of the electric grid has been over the last 70 years, that growth has been moderated by cost-effective energy efficiency.

That very same dynamic is now poised to continue in the decades ahead to great benefit, with energy efficiency and behind-the-meter solar (or solar attached to our homes and businesses) driving impressive savings. API states that, “By 2032, heating electrification alone is expected to account for 7,334 gigawatt hours (GWh) of demand….Electric vehicles are projected to account for a whopping 13,961 GWh of grid demand in 2032” – asserting that these trends will mean “significant added load to ensure uninterrupted mobility for New Englanders” and “a substantial increase in power consumption to keep our homes and businesses warm during the colder months.”

But the very sources API cites in support of these conclusions also reveal a second side to the story: ISO-NE, the power grid operator, also projects that energy efficiency and behind the meter solar are together projected to reduce grid demand in 2032 by 21,000 GWh, helping to counteract the upward pressure on demand from heating and vehicles.

What’s more, much of the added demand for heating and vehicle charging can and will be flexible in nature, with electric vehicles and appliances like heat pump water heaters able to shift significant amounts of their consumption to avoid peak periods and soak up surplus, low-cost renewables. Utility-sponsored programs like Connected Solutions, which encourage homeowners to reduce and shift the periods of peak demand, are already helping target the estimated 10 percent of peak load hours during the year that account for approximately 40 percent of electricity/grid spending.

All told, while the most cost-effective pathway to addressing climate change will result in increased electricity use in Massachusetts, the analysis from our grid operator highlights the critical role that energy efficiency and behind the meter solar will play in helping to mitigate this increase in electricity consumption. Thanks to these contributions from efficiency and solar – as well as other expected contributions from wind, storage, hydro, and other clean resources large and small – ISO-NE itself has found that the region is not expected to face unmanageable shortfalls or reliability concerns through 2032, with longer-term analyses underway.

API also raises cost concerns about needed grid investments. While utility grid investment plans may have significant combined price tags in the abstract, they are not “upfront investments” that occur in one year; rather, they are spread out over many years in a manageable way. Moreover, spending of this kind – after it goes through the scrutiny of stakeholder and Department of Public Utilities review – is incredibly cost-effective, and helps bring multiple dollars in benefits/savings for every dollar expended.

Take, for example, the $49 million transmission investment that is allowing the region’s largest (and costliest) fossil fuel power plant to retire with no reliability concerns next year, ending a vastly more expensive ‘must-run’ contract. And every day, there’s more news about the benefits of innovative grid enhancing technologies, such as those found by utility PPL (Pennsylvania-based parent of Rhode Island Energy), which saved about $50 million in upfront costs and about $20 million in annual congestion costs. How? Just by spending less than $300,000 to install sensors on two 230-kV transmission lines instead of rebuilding or significantly upgrading them.

Imagine the savings Massachusetts can reap with widespread deployment of these grid enhancing technologies and other such solutions.

The bottom line is our grid will undoubtedly expand en route to our climate goals, but this expansion is beneficial and abundantly necessary. And, we have new tools to ensure that our future grid is as affordable, intelligent, and resilient as possible. The work of electrification, like anything worth doing, will not be easy, but it will unlock major benefits to families, businesses, and communities across the region.

Joe LaRusso is senior advocate of the clean grid initiative and Jamie Dickerson is senior director of climate at the Acadia Center, a nonprofit advocating for clean energy solutions.