FOR MONTHS, school district leaders in cities with high immigrant populations have been sounding the alarm over student enrollment drops some say are due to amplified federal immigration enforcement.

Overall, public schools across Massachusetts — which has become a target of President Trump’s crackdown on immigration — lost over 15,000 students from fall 2024 to fall 2025, according to state data released in January. That brings total enrollment in the state to its lowest level in over three decades.

A large part of that enrollment drop comes from a sharp decline in English language learners — not all of whom are immigrants — and newcomers to the country. School districts do not ask students and families about immigration status specifically but often use these other groups as a substitute.

Thousands of new English learners and immigrant students have enrolled in the state’s public schools each year since the pandemic, which many districts have relied on to bolster their enrollments amid declining birthrates and affordability concerns that have pushed some families to move out of Massachusetts. But in 2025, the number of English learners enrolled in public schools dropped by around 7,000.

A handful of Gateway Cities, which are home to a disproportionate share of the state’s immigrants and a significant number of students who are English learners, saw some of the sharpest declines this school year after their enrollments had mostly been increasing following the pandemic, including Chelsea, Lynn, Lawrence, Everett, Revere, Brockton, Worcester, and Malden.

District leaders, advocates, and teachers union leaders recently gathered on Beacon Hill to call attention to the impact that the enrollment declines will have on their budgets as inflation continues to outpace state funding increases for schools.

“It’s the perfect storm,” Chelsea Public Schools superintendent Almi Abeyta said in an interview. “You have declining enrollment due to low birth rates, then you have people leaving the city of Chelsea because it’s very expensive, and now the low immigration patterns coming to our city.”

Chelsea Public Schools’ total enrollment dropped this school year by 350 students — a 5.7 percent decrease from the year before. Of that 350-student drop, 223 were English language learners. The remaining 127 students are ones that transferred out of the district, around 25 percent of which reported that they self-deported to another country, another 25 percent of which said they were moving out of the state, and the remaining 50 percent of which said they moved to other cities or districts, according to Abeyta.

“The cafeteria isn’t as full. The hallways are not as full,” Abeyta said. “It’s noticeable.”

Around 44 percent of Chelsea’s predominantly Latino population was born outside of the United States — the largest foreign-born population of any community in Massachusetts. Nearly half of the district’s students are English language learners. The city was the target of a widely covered ICE raid in March 2025.

“Our school system is only a two-mile radius. It’s very small, so if ICE is in the neighborhood, it’s going to be close to one of our schools,” Abeyta said, adding that in October, an ICE agent was spotted in a parking lot outside of one of the district’s elementary schools.

She said the district is facing an $11 million budget shortfall this year. State funding for Chelsea schools is around $19,000 per student, meaning the 350-student drop alone means the district lost $6.7 million.

“We have been advocating with our state legislators to provide a one-time soft landing, because we didn’t expect this to be so high this year,” Abeyta said. “But then, of course, it’s probably going to be the same for next year. One time helps us this year, but what about the following years down the road?”

Revere Public Schools’ total enrollment is down 4.5 percent this year compared to last. The percentage of English language learners who leave the district each year is typically between 30 percent and 35 percent, according to Superintendent Dianne Kelly. That percentage jumped to 43 percent during this school year.

Roughly 43 percent of Revere’s residents were born outside the US.

The district often asks families where they are going when a student leaves. The percentage of exiting English learners that say they are leaving the state — which includes leaving the country — is typically between 40 percent and 45 percent, Kelly said. This year that number increased to 60 percent.

In the fall, Lynn Public Schools’ enrollment was down by 487 students — nearly a 3 percent decrease in total enrollment. The district’s total number of English learners decreased by 3.8 percent. But Superintendent Molly Cohen said their most recent, monthly enrollment data shows that as of February, total enrollment had dropped by 3.8 percent, and English learner enrollment dropped by nearly 6 percent.

“Whatever is happening in the in the climate and in the culture is having a bigger impact on the ELL students,” Cohen said. “Kids and teachers and administrators in the school setting — they feel that. They’re looking at an empty desk.”

A loss of 487 students creates a $9 million budget shortfall, Cohen said. Lynn is one of many districts in the state that have long relied on immigration to boost their total enrollment. From 2016 to 2025, the percentage of English learners in the district increased from 19 percent to 46 percent.

Around half of the exiting students say they will be attending another school district in the state. But nearly 150 students have gone unaccounted for, meaning they could have moved out of the state or out of the country without reporting to the district.

“We don’t know where all those students are,” Cohen said. “The students who are here are feeling that anxiety and stress.”

The district often sees a mid-year increase in its enrollment of newcomers — students from other countries who have recently arrived in the US. Cohen said they have seen that number flatten out.

Around 36 percent of Lynn residents are foreign-born. Cohen said ICE agents have been spotted across the street from schools and bus stops. In June, a widely circulated video showed five federal agents restraining and arresting a Lynn business owner near Tracy Elementary School.

Because schools don’t track immigration status, it is difficult to draw a direct correlation between an enrollment drop and amplified immigration enforcement. But “the absence of that evidence is not evidence that it’s absent,” said Matt Cronin, who oversees data at Lynn Public Schools.

“While you’re not able to go from A to B to prove this statistically, there are these external factors impacting enrollment unlike things that we’ve seen in the last decade or two,” he said. “While you may not be able to attribute it directly to a specific policy or action, I think you can say that the decline in enrollments is happening for a reason, and it’s happening in very specific communities.”

But some district leaders have been hesitant to directly attribute enrollment fluctuations to the presence of federal agents.

New Bedford’s total enrollment did not drop significantly this school year, but contrary to the last 10 years, the district saw almost no growth. Fewer immigrant students — which the district defines as students who were born outside the country and have been in US schools for fewer than three full academic years — came to the district.

“I try to be cautious whenever we talk about data,” New Bedford Public Schools superintendent Andrew O’Leary said. “There are multiple factors as to why enrollment is not growing and why enrollment is declining, the most important of course is housing. But the increased hostility to immigrants and newcomers obviously is a factor as well.”

At the start of the 2025-2026 school year, there were 68 fewer immigrant students in New Bedford than there were at the start of the 2024 school year, representing a 6 percent decline, The New Bedford Light reported in December. The district’s total enrollment dropped by just 64 students in that timeframe, meaning the district added non-immigrant students as well. But 63 of those 64 students were English learners.

Between September and December alone, the number of immigrant students dropped by 169 students — a 13 percent decline since the school year began.

“It is very apparent in terms of what we hear from our families, from individual cases, and from our local community groups,” O’Leary said. “There is a climate of fear, most certainly.”

O’Leary said when student enrollment flattens or declines, it causes structural instability in their budgets, staffing, and operations.

“Most of the economic growth over the past 20 years in Massachusetts is attributable to the growth of our immigrant population. All of us, including school systems, have benefited from the growth of our immigrant communities,” he said. “To disrupt it — we’re likely to see significant negative impacts.”