A STEEP DROP IN immigration under President Trump’s aggressive crackdown on migration into the US has slowed population growth in Massachusetts to a trickle, an ominous development for a state economy that’s heavily dependent on foreign-born workers.

New data the US Census Bureau released Tuesday estimated Massachusetts had a population of about 7.15 million at the end of June of last year. That’s a modest increase of about 15,500 people from the prior one-year period, showing that the Bay State was subject to the same national trend of steeply declining inflows from other countries.

Meanwhile, Massachusetts continued to see more people leave for other states than move here from elsewhere within the country, only adding more significance to immigration patterns.

It’s the third year in a row the Census’s so-called “Vintage” population estimates have reflected some growth in the Massachusetts population.

This time, however, the trajectory was close to flat. The 0.2 percent rate of annual population growth in the state was less than a quarter as high as the year prior.

Experts cautioned that a slowdown in immigration could spell economic problems for the Bay State, where foreign-born workers form the bedrock of the workforce.

Doug Howgate, president of the business-backed Massachusetts Taxpayers Foundation, said immigrant employees are integral to fields ranging from cutting-edge research to construction to the service industry.

“Marbled throughout every aspect of our economy — and the aspects that, if we’re going to continue to grow, we need to do well — is immigrant labor,” Howgate said. “That’s not something we can do without.”

The latest data show net domestic outmigration of 33,000, meaning tens of thousands more Massachusetts residents decamped for other states than residents of other states moved here. At the same time, the state saw a net gain from international migration of 40,000, so more people relocated into Massachusetts from other countries than Bay Staters left to live in another nation.

Massachusetts had the fourth-highest rate of net international migration in 2025, trailing only Florida, Washington state, and Washington, DC, according to Census data. It also had the sixth-highest rate of population lost to domestic movement, behind New York, Hawaii, Alaska, Washington, DC, and California. The dual trends underscore the crucial role immigration plays in the state’s population growth and economy.

The combined effect of all migration in Massachusetts netted out to contribute only about 6,900 new residents, the lowest single-year total since the pandemic. Births also outpaced deaths by about 8,400 in the most recent year, forming the rest of the state’s population growth.

Given the perennial debate about whether the state’s high cost of living is driving a surge in “outmigration,” leaders on Beacon Hill might be inclined to let out a small sigh of relief that Massachusetts at least did not land among the five states whose populations shrank.

But the new numbers show a steep drop-off in immigration from last year’s record. In 2024, net international migration added about 78,000 people to the state, nearly twice as many as during the more recent one-year period. (That estimate comes from revised 2024 data published Tuesday; the Census Bureau’s original release last year put net international migration to Massachusetts in that span at about 90,000.)

Howgate called the year-over-year change a “nosedive.”

Massachusetts appears to be affected by the same larger political currents curtailing immigration across the rest of the country.

Nationwide, net international migration peaked at 2.7 million between July 1, 2023, and June 30, 2024, then plummeted to 1.3 million between July 1, 2024, and June 30, 2025. The Census Bureau called it a “historic decline.”

The most recent period includes roughly the last six months of President Joe Biden’s second term and the first six months of Trump’s return to the White House, during which his administration has dramatically ramped up deportation efforts and sought to slow the flow of new arrivals from other countries.

Demographers expect the plunge to continue. The Census Bureau projected that if current patterns hold, net international migration to the US will fall to about 321,000 between July 1, 2025, and June 30, 2026.

While immigration policy is largely handled at the federal level, the effects on states can be powerful.

For years, immigration has offset or outpaced population Massachusetts lost to domestic outmigration. A 2024 study by Boston University researchers found that immigrants represent about one in five workers in the state.

Meanwhile, elected officials continue to grapple with a shortage of available housing, exorbitant child care costs, and pricey health care and education, all of which have thrust “affordability” onto center stage.

Howgate said the domestic-only numbers newly released by the Census Bureau represent “a step forward, a step back.” Beacon Hill has taken some action on tax relief, encouraging housing development, and investing in transportation infrastructure, but Howgate stressed “you’re not going to see solutions overnight.”

“The story hasn’t really changed,” he said. “We continue to face challenges in making Massachusetts a place that’s attractive and affordable.”

It will be a big week for those closely tracking demographic data. On Thursday, the Census Bureau will follow up its latest population figures by releasing the latest five-year American Community Survey, covering 2019 through 2024, which will offer much more detailed insight into education, housing, labor, and other issue areas.