JUST OVER HALF of Massachusetts residents approve of the job Maura Healey is doing as governor – holding steady according to a new poll – but any challengers aligning themselves with Donald Trump will have to contend with the president’s persistent deep unpopularity in the Bay State. 

In a new poll for CommonWealth Beacon conducted by the MassINC Polling Group – which is partially owned by Commonwealth Beacon’s publisher MassINC – 1,000 Massachusetts residents weighed in on the state and federal executives between August 11 and 18. (Topline | Crosstabs) 

Asked how they thought Healey is doing as governor, 20 percent of residents said they strongly approve of her performance, 36 percent say they somewhat approve, 15 percent somewhat disapprove, 18 percent strongly disapprove, and 11 percent said they were unsure. The credibility interval is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. 

Most Massachusetts residents have an opinion on Trump’s performance, with only 4 percent unsure. And they’re more firmly opposed to the president’s actions. Some 48 percent of the respondents said they strongly disapprove, 12 percent somewhat disapprove, 18 percent somewhat approve, and 17 percent strongly approve.  

“Healey looks to me like a conventional Democrat,” said Steve Koczela, president of the MassINC Polling group. “She draws more cross-party support than Trump. Republicans don’t love her, but they also are not united against her the way Democrats oppose Trump.” 

Between Healey’s own base and enough independents, he said, it’s a “perfectly fine poll” for the incumbent. “It’s a long campaign with a lot to come,” he said. “But this poll on its own doesn’t feel like a warning sign.” 

Though the poll was fielded in August before Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced a series of moves that will limit who is eligible for COVID vaccines, Bay Staters were already holding Kennedy in generally low regard, though not quite as much as the president. The poll found 56 percent of residents disapproved of Kennedy’s performance and 34 percent approved. 

Healey last week announced that Massachusetts would chart a new path to break ties with the new federal vaccine policy.  

“The government is failing its responsibility to Americans, including Bay Staters,” Healey said. “So we’re here to say: This is not going to happen in Massachusetts. In Massachusetts, we will not let Donald Trump or Robert Kennedy get in the way of patients, and the care, and the treatments and the medication that they want and need.” 

Predictably for this era of hyper-partisan and nationalized politics, party affiliation was the major indicator of approval or disapproval for state and federal leadership.  

Some 42 percent of registered Republicans and independents that lean Republican – groups that largely vote the same way – strongly support Trump’s performance, 39 percent somewhat support him, 9 percent somewhat disapprove, and just 6 percent strongly disapprove. 

The polarization was even sharper among Democrats. Only 6 percent of Massachusetts Democrats or independents that lean Democratic said they strongly supported the president’s performance. Three-quarters of the Democrats and leaners strongly oppose Trump’s performance. 

The firm majority of registered Republicans and leaners are chilly to Healey’s performance overall. But while 66 percent either strongly or somewhat disapprove of her, 27 percent said they strongly or somewhat approve of her performance. 

The governor does still hold her Democratic base, with 80 percent of Democrats and leaners saying they approved of her performance. But that was somewhat softer support, split between strong approval and somewhat approving. Only 3 percent of the group said they strongly disapproved of Healey’s performance. 

Her overall numbers are still a far cry from her unusually popular predecessor, Charlie Baker, even as Trump’s first term sparked outrage in the Bay State. 

During Baker’s first run for governor, he was widely perceived as stridently partisan – a mismatch for the generally liberal Massachusetts electorate. But after toning down his pitch and winning a tight race against Attorney General Martha Coakley by less than 2 percentage points in 2014, Baker moved to the center with a Mr. Fix-It brand. 

In 2017, as midterms approached and the gubernatorial election was just a year away, Baker was viewed favorably by 67 percent of the state’s voters and held leads of at least 34 points against his three declared Democratic challengers. 

By the end of Baker’s term, his support came more from Democrats than Republicans, Koczela noted. “That’s a better formula for Baker,” he said, “since registered Republicans are such a small part of the electorate.” 

Healey’s election marked the return of one-party rule on Beacon Hill, and some political watchers mulled that there may be interest in rebalancing the state level partisan math if a strong candidate came along. 

Relatively little polling has tested out the odds of Healey’s Republican challengers, Brian Shortsleeve and Mike Kennealy, who both worked in the Baker administration and are currently criticizing each other over fundraising while going after Healey on shelter capacity, crime, and spending. A February UMass Amherst poll found Kennealy trailing Healey 40 percent to 15 percent, and Shortsleeve behind 44 percent to 12. 

“Donald Trump has a 35 percent approval rating,” Koczela noted. “Aligning with him could be helpful in winning a Republican primary but won’t help with the broader electorate. This has been the conundrum for GOP candidates in Massachusetts since Trump came on the scene.” 

In net approval – total approval minus total disapproval – Healey struggles with voters without college degrees and is barely above water with true independents and residents of Southeast Massachusetts. That region tends to be the hardest area for Democrats, Koczela said. 

Healey also seems to be a bit softer than a Democrat might like among non-white residents, which are generally reliable Democratic voters and with whom the poll shows Healey has net positives of 28 percentage points. Non-white voters in 2024 chose Kamala Harris over Trump in Massachusetts 73 percent to 25 percent, a 48-point margin. 

Though Massachusetts does not have exit polls during non-presidential years, Healey won cities and towns with heavily Latino populations by healthy margins in 2022. For instance, she won Fall River with 57 percent of the vote to Geoff Diehl’s 41 percent. 

“In 2024, Massachusetts saw a major realignment, particularly among Latino voters,” Koczela said. “This showed up in places like Lawrence, Fall River, and other Gateway Cities with Trump making major gains over past Republican candidates. Democrats would certainly hope for a strong performance among the state’s voters of color to show this was a one off, and this poll doesn’t clearly point in that direction.”